Daily Papers

Large Language Models (LLMs) have recently shown strong reasoning and generalization capabilities, motivating their use as decision-making policies in complex environments. StarCraft II (SC2), with its massive state-action space and partial observability, is a challenging testbed. However, existing LLM-based SC2 agents primarily focus on improving the policy itself and overlook integrating a learnable, action-conditioned transition model into the decision loop. To bridge this gap, we propose StarWM, the first world model for SC2 that predicts future observations under partial observability. To facilitate learning SC2's hybrid dynamics, we introduce a structured textual representation that factorizes observations into five semantic modules, and construct SC2-Dynamics-50k, the first instruction-tuning dataset for SC2 dynamics prediction. We further develop a multi-dimensional offline evaluation framework for predicted structured observations. Offline results show StarWM's substantial gains over zero-shot baselines, including nearly 60% improvements in resource prediction accuracy and self-side macro-situation consistency. Finally, we propose StarWM-Agent, a world-model-augmented decision system that integrates StarWM into a Generate--Simulate--Refine decision loop for foresight-driven policy refinement. Online evaluation against SC2's built-in AI demonstrates consistent improvements, yielding win-rate gains of 30%, 15%, and 30% against Hard (LV5), Harder (LV6), and VeryHard (LV7), respectively, alongside improved macro-management stability and tactical risk assessment.

Iterative refinement has been a promising paradigm to enable large language models (LLMs) to resolve difficult reasoning and problem-solving tasks. One of the key challenges, however, is how to effectively search through the enormous search space of possible refinements. Existing methods typically fall back on predefined heuristics, which are troubled by the exploration-exploitation dilemma and cannot adapt based on past refinement outcomes. We introduce Tree-Guided Policy Refinement (TGPR), a novel framework that combines GRPO with a Thompson-Sampling-based tree search. TGPR explores both failed and successful refinement paths actively, with denser training trajectories and more adaptive policies. On HumanEval, MBPP, and APPS benchmarks, our method achieves up to +4.2 percentage points absolute improvement in pass@1 (on MBPP) and up to +12.51 percentage points absolute improvement in pass@10 (on APPS) compared to a competitive GRPO baseline. Apart from debugging code, TGPR focuses on a principled approach to combining learned policies with structured search methods, offering a general framework for enhancing iterative refinement and stateful reasoning in LLMs.

Multimodal deep search requires an agent to solve open-world problems by chaining search, tool use, and visual reasoning over evolving textual and visual context. Two bottlenecks limit current systems. First, existing tool-use harnesses treat images returned by search, browsing, or transformation as transient outputs, so intermediate visual evidence cannot be re-consumed by later tools. Second, training data is usually built by fixed curation recipes that cannot track the target agent's evolving capability. To address these challenges, we first introduce a visual-native agent harness centered on an image bank reference protocol, which registers every tool-returned image as an addressable reference and makes intermediate visual evidence reusable by later tools. On top of this harness, On-policy Data Evolution (ODE) runs a closed-loop data generator that refines itself across rounds from rollouts of the policy being trained. This per-round refinement makes each round's data target what the current policy still needs to learn. The same framework supports both diverse supervised fine-tuning data and policy-aware reinforcement learning data curation, covering the full training lifecycle of the target agent. Across 8 multimodal deep search benchmarks, ODE improves the Qwen3-VL-8B agent from 24.9% to 39.0% on average, surpassing Gemini-2.5 Pro in standard agent-workflow setting (37.9%). At 30B, ODE raises the average score from 30.6% to 41.5%. Further analyses validate the effectiveness of image-bank reuse, especially on complex tasks requiring iterative visual refinement, while rollout-feedback evolution yields more grounded SFT traces and better policy-matched RL tasks than static synthesis.

Large language models (LLMs) excel at processing information reactively but lack the ability to systemically explore hypothetical futures. They cannot ask, "what if we take this action? how will it affect the final outcome" and forecast its potential consequences before acting. This critical gap limits their utility in dynamic, high-stakes scenarios like strategic planning, risk assessment, and real-time decision making. To bridge this gap, we propose WiA-LLM, a new paradigm that equips LLMs with proactive thinking capabilities. Our approach integrates What-If Analysis (WIA), a systematic approach for evaluating hypothetical scenarios by changing input variables. By leveraging environmental feedback via reinforcement learning, WiA-LLM moves beyond reactive thinking. It dynamically simulates the outcomes of each potential action, enabling the model to anticipate future states rather than merely react to the present conditions. We validate WiA-LLM in Honor of Kings (HoK), a complex multiplayer game environment characterized by rapid state changes and intricate interactions. The game's real-time state changes require precise multi-step consequence prediction, making it an ideal testbed for our approach. Experimental results demonstrate WiA-LLM achieves a remarkable 74.2% accuracy in forecasting game-state changes (up to two times gain over baselines). The model shows particularly significant gains in high-difficulty scenarios where accurate foresight is critical. To our knowledge, this is the first work to formally explore and integrate what-if analysis capabilities within LLMs. WiA-LLM represents a fundamental advance toward proactive reasoning in LLMs, providing a scalable framework for robust decision-making in dynamic environments with broad implications for strategic applications.

On-policy distillation (OPD) has emerged as an efficient post-training paradigm for large language models. However, existing studies largely attribute this advantage to denser and more stable supervision, while the parameter-level mechanisms underlying OPD's efficiency remain poorly understood. In this work, we argue that OPD's efficiency stems from a form of ``foresight'': it establishes a stable update trajectory toward the final model early in training. This foresight manifests in two aspects. First, at the Module-Allocation Level, OPD identifies regions with low marginal utility and concentrates updates on modules that are more critical to reasoning. Second, at the Update-Direction Level, OPD exhibits stronger low-rank concentration, with its dominant subspaces aligning closely with the final update subspace early in training. Building on these findings, we propose EffOPD, a plug-and-play acceleration method that speeds up OPD by adaptively selecting an extrapolation step size and moving along the current update direction. EffOPD requires no additional trainable modules or complex hyperparameter tuning, and achieves an average training acceleration of 3times while maintaining comparable final performance. Overall, our findings provide a parameter-dynamics perspective for understanding the efficiency of OPD and offer practical insights for designing more efficient post-training methods for large language models.

Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) has been commonly used to align the behaviors of Large Language Models (LLMs) with human preferences. Recently, a popular alternative is Direct Policy Optimization (DPO), which replaces an LLM-based reward model with the policy itself, thus obviating the need for extra memory and training time to learn the reward model. However, DPO does not consider the relative qualities of the positive and negative responses, and can lead to sub-optimal training outcomes. To alleviate this problem, we investigate the use of intrinsic knowledge within the on-the-fly fine-tuning LLM to obtain relative qualities and help to refine the loss function. Specifically, we leverage the knowledge of the LLM to design a refinement function to estimate the quality of both the positive and negative responses. We show that the constructed refinement function can help self-refine the loss function under mild assumptions. The refinement function is integrated into DPO and its variant Identity Policy Optimization (IPO). Experiments across various evaluators indicate that they can improve the performance of the fine-tuned models over DPO and IPO.

The incorporation of world modeling into manipulation policy learning has pushed the boundary of manipulation performance. However, existing efforts simply model the 2D visual dynamics, which is insufficient for robust manipulation when target tasks involve prominent depth-wise movement. To address this, we present a 3D dynamics-aware manipulation framework that seamlessly integrates 3D world modeling and policy learning. Three self-supervised learning tasks (current depth estimation, future RGB-D prediction, 3D flow prediction) are introduced within our framework, which complement each other and endow the policy model with 3D foresight. Extensive experiments on simulation and the real world show that 3D foresight can greatly boost the performance of manipulation policies without sacrificing inference speed. Code is available at https://github.com/Stardust-hyx/3D-Foresight.

Direct Preference Optimization (DPO) simplifies reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF) for large language models (LLMs) by directly optimizing human preferences without an explicit reward model. We find that during DPO training, the reference model plays the role of a data weight adjuster. However, the common practice of initializing the policy and reference models identically in DPO can lead to inefficient data utilization and impose a performance ceiling. Meanwhile, the lack of a reference model in Simple Preference Optimization (SimPO) reduces training robustness and necessitates stricter conditions to prevent catastrophic forgetting. In this work, we propose Pre-DPO, a simple yet effective DPO-based training paradigm that enhances preference optimization performance by leveraging a guiding reference model. This reference model provides foresight into the optimal policy state achievable through the training preference data, serving as a guiding mechanism that adaptively assigns higher weights to samples more suitable for the model and lower weights to those less suitable. Extensive experiments on AlpacaEval 2.0 and Arena-Hard v0.1 benchmarks demonstrate that Pre-DPO consistently improves the performance of both DPO and SimPO, without relying on external models or additional data.

Generative AI systems like foundation models (FMs) must align well with human values to ensure their behavior is helpful and trustworthy. While Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) has shown promise for optimizing model performance using human judgments, existing RLHF pipelines predominantly rely on immediate feedback, which can fail to accurately reflect the downstream impact of an interaction on users' utility. We demonstrate that feedback based on evaluators' foresight estimates of downstream consequences systematically induces Goodhart's Law dynamics, incentivizing misaligned behaviors like sycophancy and deception and ultimately degrading user outcomes. To alleviate this, we propose decoupling evaluation from prediction by refocusing RLHF on hindsight feedback. Our theoretical analysis reveals that conditioning evaluator feedback on downstream observations mitigates misalignment and improves expected human utility, even when these observations are simulated by the AI system itself. To leverage this insight in a practical alignment algorithm, we introduce Reinforcement Learning from Hindsight Simulation (RLHS), which first simulates plausible consequences and then elicits feedback to assess what behaviors were genuinely beneficial in hindsight. We apply RLHS to two widely-employed online and offline preference optimization methods -- Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO) and Direct Preference Optimization (DPO) -- and show empirically that misalignment is significantly reduced with both methods. Through an online human user study, we show that RLHS consistently outperforms RLHF in helping users achieve their goals and earns higher satisfaction ratings, despite being trained solely with simulated hindsight feedback. These results underscore the importance of focusing on long-term consequences, even simulated ones, to mitigate misalignment in RLHF.

With the rapid advancement of Large Language Models (LLMs), developing effective critic modules for precise guidance has become crucial yet challenging. In this paper, we initially demonstrate that supervised fine-tuning for building critic modules (which is widely adopted in current solutions) fails to genuinely enhance models' critique abilities, producing superficial critiques with insufficient reflections and verifications. To unlock the unprecedented critique capabilities, we propose RefCritic, a long-chain-of-thought critic module based on reinforcement learning with dual rule-based rewards: (1) instance-level correctness of solution judgments and (2) refinement accuracies of the policy model based on critiques, aiming to generate high-quality evaluations with actionable feedback that effectively guides model refinement. We evaluate RefCritic on Qwen2.5-14B-Instruct and DeepSeek-R1-Distill-Qwen-14B across five benchmarks. On critique and refinement settings, RefCritic demonstrates consistent advantages across all benchmarks, e.g., 6.8\% and 7.2\% gains on AIME25 for the respective base models. Notably, under majority voting, policy models filtered by RefCritic show superior scaling with increased voting numbers. Moreover, despite training on solution-level supervision, RefCritic outperforms step-level supervised approaches on ProcessBench, a benchmark to identify erroneous steps in mathematical reasoning.

Reinforcement learning fine-tuning (RLFT) is a dominant paradigm for improving pretrained policies for downstream tasks. These pretrained policies, trained on large datasets, produce generations with a broad range of promising but unrefined behaviors. Often, a critical failure mode of RLFT arises when policies lose this diversity and collapse into a handful of easily exploitable outputs. This convergence hinders exploration, which is essential for expanding the capabilities of the pretrained policy and for amplifying the benefits of test-time compute scaling. To address this, we introduce an objective for policy gradient methods that explicitly enforces the exploration and refinement of diverse generations, which we call a polychromic objective. We then show how proximal policy optimization (PPO) can be adapted to optimize this objective. Our method (1) employs vine sampling to collect on-policy rollouts and (2) modifies the advantage function to reflect the advantage under our new objective. Experiments on BabyAI, Minigrid, and Algorithmic Creativity show that our method improves success rates by reliably solving a larger set of environment configurations and generalizes better under large perturbations. Moreover, when given multiple attempts in pass@k experiments, the policy achieves substantially higher coverage, demonstrating its ability to maintain and exploit a diverse repertoire of strategies.

Recent advances in world models have shown promise for modeling future dynamics of environmental states, enabling agents to reason and act without accessing real environments. Current methods mainly perform single-step or fixed-horizon rollouts, leaving their potential for complex task planning under-exploited. We propose Imagine-then-Plan (ITP), a unified framework for agent learning via lookahead imagination, where an agent's policy model interacts with the learned world model, yielding multi-step ``imagined'' trajectories. Since the imagination horizon may vary by tasks and stages, we introduce a novel adaptive lookahead mechanism by trading off the ultimate goal and task progress. The resulting imagined trajectories provide rich signals about future consequences, such as achieved progress and potential conflicts, which are fused with current observations, formulating a partially observable and imaginable Markov decision process to guide policy learning. We instantiate ITP with both training-free and reinforcement-trained variants. Extensive experiments across representative agent benchmarks demonstrate that ITP significantly outperforms competitive baselines. Further analyses validate that our adaptive lookahead largely enhances agents' reasoning capability, providing valuable insights into addressing broader, complex tasks.

Large language models (LLMs) struggle with complex, long-horizon reasoning due to instability caused by their frozen policy assumption. Current test-time scaling methods treat execution feedback merely as an external signal for filtering or rewriting trajectories, without internalizing it to improve the underlying reasoning strategy. Inspired by Popper's epistemology of "conjectures and refutations," we argue that intelligence requires real-time evolution of the model's policy through learning from failed attempts. We introduce Policy of Thoughts (PoT), a framework that recasts reasoning as a within-instance online optimization process. PoT first generates diverse candidate solutions via an efficient exploration mechanism, then uses Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO) to update a transient LoRA adapter based on execution feedback. This closed-loop design enables dynamic, instance-specific refinement of the model's reasoning priors. Experiments show that PoT dramatically boosts performance: a 4B model achieves 49.71% accuracy on LiveCodeBench, outperforming GPT-4o and DeepSeek-V3 despite being over 50 smaller.

Existing Large Language Model (LLM) agents struggle in interactive environments requiring long-horizon planning, primarily due to compounding errors when simulating future states. To address this, we propose ProAct, a framework that enables agents to internalize accurate lookahead reasoning through a two-stage training paradigm. First, we introduce Grounded LookAhead Distillation (GLAD), where the agent undergoes supervised fine-tuning on trajectories derived from environment-based search. By compressing complex search trees into concise, causal reasoning chains, the agent learns the logic of foresight without the computational overhead of inference-time search. Second, to further refine decision accuracy, we propose the Monte-Carlo Critic (MC-Critic), a plug-and-play auxiliary value estimator designed to enhance policy-gradient algorithms like PPO and GRPO. By leveraging lightweight environment rollouts to calibrate value estimates, MC-Critic provides a low-variance signal that facilitates stable policy optimization without relying on expensive model-based value approximation. Experiments on both stochastic (e.g., 2048) and deterministic (e.g., Sokoban) environments demonstrate that ProAct significantly improves planning accuracy. Notably, a 4B parameter model trained with ProAct outperforms all open-source baselines and rivals state-of-the-art closed-source models, while demonstrating robust generalization to unseen environments. The codes and models are available at https://github.com/GreatX3/ProAct

Vision-Language-Action Models (VLAs) have demonstrated remarkable generalization capabilities in real-world experiments. However, their success rates are often not on par with expert policies, and they require fine-tuning when the setup changes. In this work, we introduce Refined Policy Distillation (RPD), a novel Reinforcement Learning (RL)-based policy refinement method that bridges this performance gap through a combination of on-policy RL with behavioral cloning. The core idea of RPD is to distill and refine VLAs into compact, high-performing expert policies by guiding the student policy during RL exploration using the actions of a teacher VLA, resulting in increased sample efficiency and faster convergence. We complement our method by fine-tuned versions of Octo and OpenVLA for ManiSkill3 to evaluate RPD in simulation. While this is a key requirement for applying RL, it also yields new insights beyond existing studies on VLA performance in real-world settings. Our experimental results across various manipulation tasks show that RPD enables the RL student to learn expert policies that outperform the VLA teacher in both dense and sparse reward settings, while also achieving faster convergence than the RL baseline. Our approach is even robust to changes in camera perspective and can generalize to task variations that the underlying VLA cannot solve. Our code, dataset, VLA checkpoints, and videos are available at https://refined-policy-distillation.github.io

Vision-Language-Action (VLA) models convert high-level language instructions into concrete, executable actions, a task that is especially challenging in open-world environments. We present Visual Foresight Planning (ForeAct), a general and efficient planner that guides a VLA step-by-step using imagined future observations and subtask descriptions. With an imagined future observation, the VLA can focus on visuo-motor inference rather than high-level semantic reasoning, leading to improved accuracy and generalization. Our planner comprises a highly efficient foresight image generation module that predicts a high-quality 640times480 future observation from the current visual input and language instruction within only 0.33s on an H100 GPU, together with a vision-language model that reasons over the task and produces subtask descriptions for both the generator and the VLA. Importantly, state-of-the-art VLAs can integrate our planner seamlessly by simply augmenting their visual inputs, without any architectural modification. The foresight generator is pretrained on over 1 million multi-task, cross-embodiment episodes, enabling it to learn robust embodied dynamics. We evaluate our framework on a benchmark that consists of 11 diverse, multi-step real-world tasks. It achieves an average success rate of 87.4%, demonstrating a +40.9% absolute improvement over the π_0 baseline (46.5%) and a +30.3% absolute improvement over π_0 augmented with textual subtask guidance (57.1%).

Model-based reinforcement learning (RL) can be effectively supported at scale through the use of world models. However, in practice, scaling such approaches remains fundamentally limited. A commonly recognized challenge is model bias and error compounding, which degrade long-horizon predictions. Beyond these issues, we identify a more critical yet underexplored bottleneck: a structural misalignment between search and value learning in existing world model approaches. In particular, policy improvement often relies on value functions induced by a separate, non-search policy, resulting in training inconsistency and ultimately suboptimal learning. To address this limitation, we propose Model-Based Diffusion Policy Optimization (MBDPO) in world models, a framework that unifies search and policy optimization through diffusion policy representations, thereby unlocking the potential of world models for scalable policy learning. Instead of constructing an explicit planner over a learned world model, we reformulate policy optimization as a diffusion process over searched trajectories in latent world models. In this view, we extract an implicit energy function from the collected dataset that anchors the policy, enabling MBDPO to refine the score field for policy optimization while mitigating misalignment. We evaluate MBDPO across a wide range of settings, including multi-task offline pretraining, online learning, and offline-to-online fine-tuning. In the offline regime, we further investigate its scaling behavior by pretraining on large-scale datasets, observing consistent and monotonic performance gains with increasing model capacity.

Many resource management problems require sequential decision-making under uncertainty, where the only uncertainty affecting the decision outcomes are exogenous variables outside the control of the decision-maker. We model these problems as Exo-MDPs (Markov Decision Processes with Exogenous Inputs) and design a class of data-efficient algorithms for them termed Hindsight Learning (HL). Our HL algorithms achieve data efficiency by leveraging a key insight: having samples of the exogenous variables, past decisions can be revisited in hindsight to infer counterfactual consequences that can accelerate policy improvements. We compare HL against classic baselines in the multi-secretary and airline revenue management problems. We also scale our algorithms to a business-critical cloud resource management problem -- allocating Virtual Machines (VMs) to physical machines, and simulate their performance with real datasets from a large public cloud provider. We find that HL algorithms outperform domain-specific heuristics, as well as state-of-the-art reinforcement learning methods.

Agent-compiled knowledge bases provide persistent external knowledge for large language model (LLM) agents in open-ended, knowledge-intensive downstream tasks. Yet their quality is systematically limited by incompleteness, incorrectness, and redundancy, manifested as missing evidence or cross-document links, low-confidence or imprecise claims, and ambiguous or coreference resolution issues. Such defects compound under iterative use, degrading retrieval fidelity and downstream task performance. We present DeepRefine, a general LLM-based reasoning model for agent-compiled knowledge refinement that improves the quality of any pre-constructed knowledge bases with user queries to make it more suitable for the downstream tasks. DeepRefine performs multi-turn interactions with the knowledge base and conducts abductive diagnosis over interaction history, localizes likely defects, and executes targeted refinement actions for incremental knowledge base updates. To optimize refinement policies of DeepRefine without gold references, we introduce a Gain-Beyond-Draft (GBD) reward and train the reasoning process end-to-end via reinforcement learning. Extensive experiments demonstrate consistent downstream gains over strong baselines.

Large Language Models (LLMs) exhibit robust problem-solving capabilities for diverse tasks. However, most LLM-based agents are designed as specific task solvers with sophisticated prompt engineering, rather than agents capable of learning and evolving through interactions. These task solvers necessitate manually crafted prompts to inform task rules and regulate LLM behaviors, inherently incapacitating to address complex dynamic scenarios e.g., large interactive games. In light of this, we propose Agent-Pro: an LLM-based Agent with Policy-level Reflection and Optimization that can learn a wealth of expertise from interactive experiences and progressively elevate its behavioral policy. Specifically, it involves a dynamic belief generation and reflection process for policy evolution. Rather than action-level reflection, Agent-Pro iteratively reflects on past trajectories and beliefs, fine-tuning its irrational beliefs for a better policy. Moreover, a depth-first search is employed for policy optimization, ensuring continual enhancement in policy payoffs. Agent-Pro is evaluated across two games: Blackjack and Texas Hold'em, outperforming vanilla LLM and specialized models. Our results show Agent-Pro can learn and evolve in complex and dynamic scenes, which also benefits numerous LLM-based applications.

Critique-guided reinforcement learning (RL) has emerged as a powerful paradigm for training LLM agents by augmenting sparse outcome rewards with natural-language feedback. However, current methods often rely on static or offline critic models, which fail to adapt as the policy evolves. In on-policy RL, the agent's error patterns shift over time, causing stationary critics to become stale and providing feedback of diminishing utility. To address this, we introduce ECHO (Evolving Critic for Hindsight-Guided Optimization)}, a framework that jointly optimizes the policy and critic through a synchronized co-evolutionary loop. ECHO utilizes a cascaded rollout mechanism where the critic generates multiple diagnoses for an initial trajectory, followed by policy refinement to enable group-structured advantage estimation. We address the challenge of learning plateaus via a saturation-aware gain shaping objective, which rewards the critic for inducing incremental improvements in high-performing trajectories. By employing dual-track GRPO updates, ECHO ensures the critic's feedback stays synchronized with the evolving policy. Experimental results show that ECHO yields more stable training and higher long-horizon task success across open-world environments.

AI research often requires decisions before future evidence exists: which bottleneck to attack, which direction to pursue, or where a project should be positioned. We introduce ForeSci, a temporally controlled benchmark for evaluating whether LLM agents can make such forward-looking research judgements from historical evidence. ForeSci contains 500 tasks across four fast-moving AI domains and four decision families. Each task is paired with a cutoff-aligned offline knowledge base; post-cutoff papers are hidden during generation and used only for validation. To avoid random future-event prediction, tasks are derived from pre-cutoff taxonomy branches and evidence signals, and answer-generation backbones are selected to precede the task cutoffs. We evaluate native LLMs, Hybrid RAG, and three research-agent adaptations across four backbones. Results show that explicit evidence organization improves traceability and factual support, but gains depend strongly on the decision family. Diagnostics reveal a recurring evidence-decision decoupling: agents may cite relevant evidence while forecasting the wrong research object. ForeSci turns forward-looking AI research judgement into a controlled benchmark for evaluating research agents as decision-making systems.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have enabled automated heuristic design (AHD) for combinatorial optimization problems (COPs), but existing frameworks' reliance on fixed evolutionary rules and static prompt templates often leads to myopic heuristic generation, redundant evaluations, and limited reasoning about how new heuristics should be derived. We propose a novel multi-agent reasoning framework, referred to as Planning through World Model for Automated Heuristic Design via Self-Evolving LLMs (PathWise), which formulates heuristic generation as a sequential decision process over an entailment graph serving as a compact, stateful memory of the search trajectory. This approach allows the system to carry forward past decisions and reuse or avoid derivation information across generations. A policy agent plans evolutionary actions, a world model agent generates heuristic rollouts conditioned on those actions, and critic agents provide routed reflections summarizing lessons from prior steps, shifting LLM-based AHD from trial-and-error evolution toward state-aware planning through reasoning. Experiments across diverse COPs show that PathWise converges faster to better heuristics, generalizes across different LLM backbones, and scales to larger problem sizes.

We argue that inventory management presents unique opportunities for the reliable application of deep reinforcement learning (DRL). To enable this, we emphasize and test two complementary techniques. The first is Hindsight Differentiable Policy Optimization (HDPO), which uses pathwise gradients from offline counterfactual simulations to directly and efficiently optimize policy performance. Unlike standard policy gradient methods that rely on high-variance score-function estimators, HDPO computes gradients by differentiating through the known system dynamics. Via extensive benchmarking, we show that HDPO recovers near-optimal policies in settings with known or bounded optima, is more robust than variants of the REINFORCE algorithm, and significantly outperforms generalized newsvendor heuristics on problems using real time series data. Our second technique aligns neural policy architectures with the topology of the inventory network. We exploit Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) as a natural inductive bias for encoding supply chain structure, demonstrate that they can represent optimal and near-optimal policies in two theoretical settings, and empirically show that they reduce data requirements across six diverse inventory problems. A key obstacle to progress in this area is the lack of standardized benchmark problems. To address this gap, we open-source a suite of benchmark environments, along with our full codebase, to promote transparency and reproducibility. All resources are available at github.com/MatiasAlvo/Neural_inventory_control.

Large language models (LLMs) can refine their responses based on feedback, enabling self-improvement through iterative training or test-time refinement. However, existing methods predominantly focus on refinement within the same reasoning format, which may lead to non-correcting behaviors. We propose CaP, a novel approach that uses external tools to refine chain-of-thought (CoT) responses generated by the same or other LLMs. CaP employs a two-stage training process: supervised fine-tuning followed by preference optimization with DPO variants. Our observations highlight the critical role of preference optimization in enabling effective refinement. Additionally, we compare several sampling strategies to leverage CoT and tools at inference time. Experimental results demonstrate CaP's potential for effective cross-reasoning refinement and efficient inference.

Recent advancements in Graphical User Interface (GUI) agents have predominantly focused on training paradigms like supervised fine-tuning (SFT) and reinforcement learning (RL). However, the challenge of high-dynamic GUI environments remains largely underexplored. Existing agents typically rely on a single screenshot after each action for decision-making, leading to a partially observable (or even unobservable) Markov decision process, where the key GUI state including important information for actions is often inadequately captured. To systematically explore this challenge, we introduce DynamicGUIBench, a comprehensive online GUI benchmark spanning ten applications and diverse interaction scenarios characterized by important interface changes between actions. Furthermore, we present DynamicUI, an agent designed for dynamic interfaces, which takes screen-recording videos of the interaction process as input and consists of three components: a dynamic perceiver, a refinement strategy, and a reflection. Specifically, the dynamic perceiver clusters frames of the GUI video, generates captions for the centroids, and iteratively selects the most informative frames as the salient dynamic context. Considering that there may be inconsistencies and noise between the selected frames and the textual context of the agent, the refinement strategy employs an action-conditioned filtering to refine thoughts to mitigate thought-action inconsistency and redundancy. Based on the refined agent trajectories, the reflection module provides effective and accurate guidance for further actions. Experiments on DynamicGUIBench demonstrate that DynamicUI significantly improves the performance in dynamic GUI environments, while maintaining competitive performance on other public benchmarks.

Executing language-conditioned tasks in dynamic visual environments remains a central challenge in embodied AI. Existing Vision-Language-Action (VLA) models predominantly adopt reactive state-to-action mappings, often leading to short-sighted behaviors and poor robustness in dynamic scenes. In this paper, we introduce F1, a pretrained VLA framework which integrates the visual foresight generation into decision-making pipeline. F1 adopts a Mixture-of-Transformer architecture with dedicated modules for perception, foresight generation, and control, thereby bridging understanding, generation, and actions. At its core, F1 employs a next-scale prediction mechanism to synthesize goal-conditioned visual foresight as explicit planning targets. By forecasting plausible future visual states, F1 reformulates action generation as a foresight-guided inverse dynamics problem, enabling actions that implicitly achieve visual goals. To endow F1 with robust and generalizable capabilities, we propose a three-stage training recipe on an extensive dataset comprising over 330k trajectories across 136 diverse tasks. This training scheme enhances modular reasoning and equips the model with transferable visual foresight, which is critical for complex and dynamic environments. Extensive evaluations on real-world tasks and simulation benchmarks demonstrate F1 consistently outperforms existing approaches, achieving substantial gains in both task success rate and generalization ability.

World models offer a principled way to equip long-horizon LLM agents with foresight: predictions of action consequences before execution. However, unreliable foresight can be ignored, misused, or even degrade downstream decision-making. In this paper, we introduce WorldEvolver, a self-evolving world model framework that revises its deployment-time context while keeping the downstream agent and all model parameters frozen. WorldEvolver integrates three modules: (i) Episodic Memory, which exploits real action transitions through retrieval-based simulation; (ii) Semantic Memory, which extracts persistent heuristic rules from prediction-observation mismatches; and (iii) Selective Foresight, which filters low-confidence predictions before integrating them into agent reasoning context. We evaluate WorldEvolver on ALFWorld and ScienceWorld, measuring world model prediction accuracy on Word2World and downstream agent success rate on AgentBoard. Extensive experiments show that WorldEvolver achieves the highest prediction accuracy across three backbones and leads other world model baselines on downstream agent success rate, demonstrating that test-time memory revision enhances both predictive fidelity and planning performance.

Understanding and manipulating deformable objects (e.g., ropes and fabrics) is an essential yet challenging task with broad applications. Difficulties come from complex states and dynamics, diverse configurations and high-dimensional action space of deformable objects. Besides, the manipulation tasks usually require multiple steps to accomplish, and greedy policies may easily lead to local optimal states. Existing studies usually tackle this problem using reinforcement learning or imitating expert demonstrations, with limitations in modeling complex states or requiring hand-crafted expert policies. In this paper, we study deformable object manipulation using dense visual affordance, with generalization towards diverse states, and propose a novel kind of foresightful dense affordance, which avoids local optima by estimating states' values for long-term manipulation. We propose a framework for learning this representation, with novel designs such as multi-stage stable learning and efficient self-supervised data collection without experts. Experiments demonstrate the superiority of our proposed foresightful dense affordance. Project page: https://hyperplane-lab.github.io/DeformableAffordance

Reinforcement Learning with Verifiable Rewards (RLVR) has emerged as a promising paradigm for post-training reasoning models. However, group-based methods such as Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO) face a critical dilemma in sparse-reward settings: pure Reinforcement Learning (RL) suffers from advantage collapse and high-variance gradient estimation, while mixed-policy optimization introduces persistent distributional bias. To resolve this dilemma, we introduce Hindsight-Anchored Policy Optimization (HAPO). HAPO employs the Synthetic Success Injection (SSI) operator, a hindsight mechanism that selectively anchors optimization to teacher demonstrations during failure. This injection is governed by a Thompson sampling-inspired gating mechanism, creating an autonomous, self-paced curriculum. Theoretically, we demonstrate that HAPO achieves asymptotic consistency: by naturally annealing the teacher signal as the policy improves, HAPO recovers the unbiased on-policy gradient. This ensures off-policy guidance acts as a temporary scaffold rather than a persistent ceiling, enabling the model to surpass the limitations of static teacher forcing.

Many real-world prediction problems lack labels observable at prediction time, creating a temporal gap between prediction and outcome that yields supervision only after events resolve. To address this setting, we extend reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards to temporally resolved real-world prediction, and use it to train language models to make probabilistic forecasts under causally masked information with retrospective evaluation using proper scoring rules. Supervision is derived solely from post-resolution outcomes, preserving delayed-reward semantics. On real-world forecasting benchmarks, Qwen3-32B trained using Foresight Learning improves Brier score by 27% and halves calibration error relative to its pretrained baseline, and outperforms Qwen3-235B on both constructed future-event prediction tasks and the Metaculus benchmark despite a 7x parameter disadvantage.

Embodied navigation for long-horizon tasks, guided by complex natural language instructions, remains a formidable challenge in artificial intelligence. Existing agents often struggle with robust long-term planning about unseen environments, leading to high failure rates. To address these limitations, we introduce NavForesee, a novel Vision-Language Model (VLM) that unifies high-level language planning and predictive world model imagination within a single, unified framework. Our approach empowers a single VLM to concurrently perform planning and predictive foresight. Conditioned on the full instruction and historical observations, the model is trained to understand the navigation instructions by decomposing the task, tracking its progress, and formulating the subsequent sub-goal. Simultaneously, it functions as a generative world model, providing crucial foresight by predicting short-term environmental dynamics and long-term navigation milestones. The VLM's structured plan guides its targeted prediction, while the imagined future provides rich context to inform the navigation actions, creating a powerful internal feedback loop of perception-planning/prediction-action. We demonstrate through extensive experiments on the R2R-CE and RxR-CE benchmark that NavForesee achieves highly competitive performance in complex scenarios. Our work highlights the immense potential of fusing explicit language planning with implicit spatiotemporal prediction, paving the way for more intelligent and capable embodied agents.

Augmenting large language models (LLMs) with external tools is a promising approach to enhance their capabilities. Effectively leveraging this potential for complex tasks hinges crucially on improving their ability to use tools. Synthesizing tool use data by simulating the real world is an effective approach. Nevertheless, our investigation reveals that training gains significantly decay as the scale of these data increases. The primary factor is the model's poor performance (a.k.a deficiency) in complex scenarios, which hinders learning from data using SFT. Driven by this objective, we propose an iterative reinforced fine-tuning strategy to continually guide the model to alleviate it. Specifically, we first identify deficiency-related data based on feedback from the policy model, then perform a Monte Carlo Tree Search to collect fine-grained preference pairs to pinpoint deficiencies. Subsequently, we update the policy model using preference optimization to align with ground truth and misalign with deficiencies. This process can be iterated. Moreover, before the iteration, we propose an easy-to-hard warm-up SFT strategy to facilitate learning from challenging data. The experiments demonstrate our models go beyond the same parametric models, outperforming many larger open-source and closed-source models. Additionally, it has achieved notable training gains in complex tool use scenarios.

Large language model (LLM)-based agents exhibit strong step-by-step reasoning capabilities over short horizons, yet often fail to sustain coherent behavior over long planning horizons. We argue that this failure reflects a fundamental mismatch: step-wise reasoning induces a form of step-wise greedy policy that is adequate for short horizons but fails in long-horizon planning, where early actions must account for delayed consequences. From this planning-centric perspective, we study LLM-based agents in deterministic, fully structured environments with explicit state transitions and evaluation signals. Our analysis reveals a core failure mode of reasoning-based policies: locally optimal choices induced by step-wise scoring lead to early myopic commitments that are systematically amplified over time and difficult to recover from. We introduce FLARE (Future-aware Lookahead with Reward Estimation) as a minimal instantiation of future-aware planning to enforce explicit lookahead, value propagation, and limited commitment in a single model, allowing downstream outcomes to influence early decisions. Across multiple benchmarks, agent frameworks, and LLM backbones, FLARE consistently improves task performance and planning-level behavior, frequently allowing LLaMA-8B with FLARE to outperform GPT-4o with standard step-by-step reasoning. These results establish a clear distinction between reasoning and planning.

Humans possess the remarkable ability to foresee the future to a certain extent based on present observations, a skill we term as foresight minds. However, this capability remains largely under explored within existing Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs), hindering their capacity to learn the fundamental principles of how things operate and the intentions behind the observed subjects. To address this issue, we introduce the integration of future modeling into the existing learning frameworks of MLLMs. By utilizing the subject trajectory, a highly structured representation of a consecutive frame sequence, as a learning objective, we aim to bridge the gap between the past and the future. We propose two innovative methods to empower MLLMs with foresight minds, Foresight Pre-Training (FPT) and Foresight Instruction-Tuning (FIT), which are inspired by the modern learning paradigm of LLMs. Specifically, FPT jointly training various tasks centered on trajectories, enabling MLLMs to learn how to attend and predict entire trajectories from a given initial observation. Then, FIT requires MLLMs to first predict trajectories of related objects and then reason about potential future events based on them. Aided by FPT and FIT, we build a novel and unified MLLM named Merlin that supports multi-images input and analysis about potential actions of multiple objects for the future reasoning. Experimental results show Merlin powerful foresight minds with impressive performance on both future reasoning and visual comprehension tasks.

As Reinforcement Learning (RL) agents are increasingly employed in diverse decision-making problems using reward preferences, it becomes important to ensure that policies learned by these frameworks in mapping observations to a probability distribution of the possible actions are explainable. However, there is little to no work in the systematic understanding of these complex policies in a contrastive manner, i.e., what minimal changes to the policy would improve/worsen its performance to a desired level. In this work, we present COUNTERPOL, the first framework to analyze RL policies using counterfactual explanations in the form of minimal changes to the policy that lead to the desired outcome. We do so by incorporating counterfactuals in supervised learning in RL with the target outcome regulated using desired return. We establish a theoretical connection between Counterpol and widely used trust region-based policy optimization methods in RL. Extensive empirical analysis shows the efficacy of COUNTERPOL in generating explanations for (un)learning skills while keeping close to the original policy. Our results on five different RL environments with diverse state and action spaces demonstrate the utility of counterfactual explanations, paving the way for new frontiers in designing and developing counterfactual policies.

Large language models (LLM) often hallucinate, and while adding citations is a common solution, it is frequently insufficient for accountability as users struggle to verify how a cited source supports a generated claim. Existing methods are typically coarse-grained and fail to distinguish between direct quotes and complex reasoning. In this paper, we introduce Generation-time Fine-grained Provenance, a task where models must generate fluent answers while simultaneously producing structured, sentence-level provenance triples. To enable this, we present ReFInE (Relation-aware Fine-grained Interpretability & Evidence), a dataset featuring expert verified annotations that distinguish between Quotation, Compression, and Inference. Building on ReFInE, we propose GenProve, a framework that combines Supervised Fine-Tuning (SFT) with Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO). By optimizing a composite reward for answer fidelity and provenance correctness, GenProve significantly outperforms 14 strong LLMs in joint evaluation. Crucially, our analysis uncovers a reasoning gap where models excel at surface-level quotation but struggle significantly with inference-based provenance, suggesting that verifiable reasoning remains a frontier challenge distinct from surface-level citation.

Large Language Models have demonstrated remarkable abilities in reasoning and planning by breaking down complex problems into sequential steps. Despite their success in various domains like mathematical problem-solving and coding, LLMs face challenges in ensuring reliable and optimal planning due to their inherent myopic nature of autoregressive decoding. This paper revisits LLM reasoning from an optimal-control perspective, proposing a novel method, Predictive-Decoding, that leverages Model Predictive Control to enhance planning accuracy. By re-weighting LLM distributions based on foresight trajectories, Predictive-Decoding aims to mitigate early errors and promote non-myopic planning. Our experiments show significant improvements in a wide range of tasks for math, coding, and agents. Furthermore, Predictive-Decoding demonstrates computational efficiency, outperforming search baselines with reduced computational resources. This study provides insights into optimizing LLM planning capabilities.

Vision-language-action (VLA) models have shown remarkable capabilities in robotic manipulation, but their performance is sensitive to the action chunk length used during training, termed horizon. Our empirical study reveals an inherent trade-off: longer horizons provide stronger global foresight but degrade fine-grained accuracy, while shorter ones sharpen local control yet struggle on long-term tasks, implying fixed choice of single horizons being suboptimal. To mitigate the trade-off, we propose a mixture of horizons (MoH) strategy. MoH rearranges the action chunk into several segments with different horizons, processes them in parallel with a shared action transformer, and fuses outputs with a light linear gate. It has three appealing benefits. 1) MoH exploits long-term foresight and short-term precision jointly within a single model, improving both performance and generalizability to complex tasks. 2) MoH is plug-and-play for full-attention action modules with minimal training or inference overhead. 3) MoH enables dynamic inference with adaptive horizons, which selects stable actions through cross-horizon consensus, achieving 2.5times higher throughput than baselines while preserving superior performance. Extensive experiments over flow-based policies π_0, π_{0.5}, and one-step regression policy π_{reg} demonstrate that MoH yields consistent and significant gains on both simulations and real-world tasks. Notably, under mixed-task setting, π_{0.5} with MoH reaches a new state-of-the-art with 99% average success rate on LIBERO after only 30k training iterations. Project page: https://github.com/Timsty1/MixtureOfHorizons

Policy gradient methods rely on a baseline to measure the relative advantage of an action, ensuring the model reinforces behaviors that outperform its current average capability. In the training of Large Language Models (LLMs) using Actor-Critic methods (e.g., PPO), this baseline is typically estimated by a Value Model (Critic) often as large as the policy model itself. However, as the policy continuously evolves, the value model requires expensive, synchronous incremental training to accurately track the shifting capabilities of the policy. To avoid this overhead, Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO) eliminates the coupled value model by using the average reward of a group of rollouts as the baseline; yet, this approach necessitates extensive sampling to maintain estimation stability. In this paper, we propose V_0, a Generalist Value Model capable of estimating the expected performance of any model on unseen prompts without requiring parameter updates. We reframe value estimation by treating the policy's dynamic capability as an explicit context input; specifically, we leverage a history of instruction-performance pairs to dynamically profile the model, departing from the traditional paradigm that relies on parameter fitting to perceive capability shifts. Focusing on value estimation at State Zero (i.e., the initial prompt, hence V_0), our model serves as a critical resource scheduler. During GRPO training, V_0 predicts success rates prior to rollout, allowing for efficient sampling budget allocation; during deployment, it functions as a router, dispatching instructions to the most cost-effective and suitable model. Empirical results demonstrate that V_0 significantly outperforms heuristic budget allocation and achieves a Pareto-optimal trade-off between performance and cost in LLM routing tasks.

In the endeavor to make autonomous robots take actions, task planning is a major challenge that requires translating high-level task descriptions into long-horizon action sequences. Despite recent advances in language model agents, they remain prone to planning errors and limited in their ability to plan ahead. To address these limitations in robotic planning, we advocate a self-refining scheme that iteratively refines a draft plan until an equilibrium is reached. Remarkably, this process can be optimized end-to-end from an analytical perspective without the need to curate additional verifiers or reward models, allowing us to train self-refining planners in a simple supervised learning fashion. Meanwhile, a nested equilibrium sequence modeling procedure is devised for efficient closed-loop planning that incorporates useful feedback from the environment (or an internal world model). Our method is evaluated on the VirtualHome-Env benchmark, showing advanced performance with better scaling for inference computation. Code is available at https://github.com/Singularity0104/equilibrium-planner.

Large Language Model (LLM) agents often face significant credit assignment challenges in long-horizon, multi-step tasks due to sparse rewards. Existing value-free methods, such as Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO), encounter two fundamental bottlenecks: inaccurate step-level Q-value estimation and misaligned value baselines for intermediate states. To address these limitations, we introduce HCAPO, the first framework to integrate hindsight credit assignment into LLM agents. HCAPO leverages the LLM itself as a post-hoc critic to refine step-level Q-values through hindsight reasoning. Furthermore, HCAPO's multi-scale advantage mechanism effectively supplements the inaccurate value baselines at critical decision states. Evaluations across three challenging benchmarks, including WebShop and ALFWorld, demonstrate that HCAPO consistently outperforms state-of-the-art RL methods. Notably, HCAPO achieves a 7.7% improvement in success rate on WebShop and a 13.8% on ALFWorld over GRPO using the Qwen2.5-7B-Instruct model. These results indicate that HCAPO significantly enhances exploration efficiency, promotes concise decision-making, and ensures scalability in complex, long-horizon tasks.

Large language models (LLMs) have brought autonomous agents closer to artificial general intelligence (AGI) due to their promising generalization and emergent capabilities. There is, however, a lack of studies on how LLM-based agents behave, why they could potentially fail, and how to improve them, particularly in demanding real-world planning tasks. In this paper, as an effort to fill the gap, we present our study using a realistic benchmark, TravelPlanner, where an agent must meet multiple constraints to generate accurate plans. We leverage this benchmark to address four key research questions: (1) are LLM agents robust enough to lengthy and noisy contexts when it comes to reasoning and planning? (2) can few-shot prompting adversely impact the performance of LLM agents in scenarios with long context? (3) can we rely on refinement to improve plans, and (4) can fine-tuning LLMs with both positive and negative feedback lead to further improvement? Our comprehensive experiments indicate that, firstly, LLMs often fail to attend to crucial parts of a long context, despite their ability to handle extensive reference information and few-shot examples; secondly, they still struggle with analyzing the long plans and cannot provide accurate feedback for refinement; thirdly, we propose Feedback-Aware Fine-Tuning (FAFT), which leverages both positive and negative feedback, resulting in substantial gains over Supervised Fine-Tuning (SFT). Our findings offer in-depth insights to the community on various aspects related to real-world planning applications.

Long-horizon tasks are common in real-world robotic deployments, yet failure detection for such tasks remains underexplored. Detecting failures in long-horizon robotic tasks is particularly challenging because failure onset is often ambiguous and dense temporal annotations are typically unavailable. We present Foresight, a failure detection framework that monitors manipulation trajectories using latent representations from an action-conditioned world model. Foresight is trained using only final task-level success or failure labels. By leveraging predictive world-model embeddings, our method provides a unified framework for failure detection across different policies. We further use functional conformal prediction (FCP) to calibrate detection thresholds adaptively. We evaluate Foresight with state-of-the-art vision-language-action policies in simulation on LIBERO-Long, ManiSkill-Long, and BEHAVIOR-1K, compare it against state-of-the-artfailure detection methods, and validate it on real robots with three long-horizon tasks on a ReactorX-200 arm and one task on a Franka arm. Our results suggest that action-conditioned world-model embeddings provide a scalable representation for reliable failure monitoring in long-horizon manipulation.

Outcome-driven reinforcement learning has advanced reasoning in large language models (LLMs), but prevailing tool-augmented approaches train a single, monolithic policy that interleaves thoughts and tool calls under full context; this scales poorly with long horizons and diverse tools and generalizes weakly to new scenarios. Agentic systems offer a promising alternative by decomposing work across specialized modules, yet most remain training-free or rely on offline training decoupled from the live dynamics of multi-turn interaction. We introduce AgentFlow, a trainable, in-the-flow agentic framework that coordinates four modules (planner, executor, verifier, generator) through an evolving memory and directly optimizes its planner inside the multi-turn loop. To train on-policy in live environments, we propose Flow-based Group Refined Policy Optimization (Flow-GRPO), which tackles long-horizon, sparse-reward credit assignment by converting multi-turn optimization into a sequence of tractable single-turn policy updates. It broadcasts a single, verifiable trajectory-level outcome to every turn to align local planner decisions with global success and stabilizes learning with group-normalized advantages. Across ten benchmarks, AgentFlow with a 7B-scale backbone outperforms top-performing baselines with average accuracy gains of 14.9% on search, 14.0% on agentic, 14.5% on mathematical, and 4.1% on scientific tasks, even surpassing larger proprietary models like GPT-4o. Further analyses confirm the benefits of in-the-flow optimization, showing improved planning, enhanced tool-calling reliability, and positive scaling with model size and reasoning turns.

LLM-based agents often operate in a greedy, step-by-step manner, selecting actions solely based on the current observation without considering long-term consequences or alternative paths. This lack of foresight is particularly problematic in web environments, which are only partially observable-limited to browser-visible content (e.g., DOM and UI elements)-where a single misstep often requires complex and brittle navigation to undo. Without an explicit backtracking mechanism, agents struggle to correct errors or systematically explore alternative paths. Tree-search methods provide a principled framework for such structured exploration, but existing approaches lack mechanisms for safe backtracking, making them prone to unintended side effects. They also assume that all actions are reversible, ignoring the presence of irreversible actions-limitations that reduce their effectiveness in realistic web tasks. To address these challenges, we introduce WebOperator, a tree-search framework that enables reliable backtracking and strategic exploration. Our method incorporates a best-first search strategy that ranks actions by both reward estimates and safety considerations, along with a robust backtracking mechanism that verifies the feasibility of previously visited paths before replaying them, preventing unintended side effects. To further guide exploration, WebOperator generates action candidates from multiple, varied reasoning contexts to ensure diverse and robust exploration, and subsequently curates a high-quality action set by filtering out invalid actions pre-execution and merging semantically equivalent ones. Experimental results on WebArena and WebVoyager demonstrate the effectiveness of WebOperator. On WebArena, WebOperator achieves a state-of-the-art 54.6% success rate with gpt-4o, underscoring the critical advantage of integrating strategic foresight with safe execution.

POMDPs capture a broad class of decision making problems, but hardness results suggest that learning is intractable even in simple settings due to the inherent partial observability. However, in many realistic problems, more information is either revealed or can be computed during some point of the learning process. Motivated by diverse applications ranging from robotics to data center scheduling, we formulate a Hindsight Observable Markov Decision Process (HOMDP) as a POMDP where the latent states are revealed to the learner in hindsight and only during training. We introduce new algorithms for the tabular and function approximation settings that are provably sample-efficient with hindsight observability, even in POMDPs that would otherwise be statistically intractable. We give a lower bound showing that the tabular algorithm is optimal in its dependence on latent state and observation cardinalities.

We introduce ThinkTwice, a simple two-phase framework that jointly optimizes LLMs to solve reasoning problems and refine the answers, based on Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO). In each pair of training steps, ThinkTwice first optimizes the model on solving reasoning problems, then optimizes it on refining its own solutions to the same problems, using the same binary correctness reward in both phases without correctness signals or critique annotations. Across five mathematical reasoning benchmarks and two model families including Qwen3-4B and Olmo3-7B, ThinkTwice substantially improves both reasoning and refinement performance over competitive online policy optimization baselines. Specifically, on Qwen3-4B, ThinkTwice outperforms GRPO on AIME by 5 percentage points before refinement and by 11.5 points after one self-refinement step, measured by pass@4. Analysis of the training dynamics of ThinkTwice reveals an implicit rectify-then-fortify curriculum: refinement predominantly corrects errors early in training and naturally shifts toward preserving already-correct solutions as the model improves, yielding a more rectified reward signal. Our work establishes joint training of reasoning and self-refinement as a principled and effective methodology for RLVR.

The ARC-AGI benchmark series serves as a critical measure of few-shot generalization on novel tasks, a core aspect of intelligence. The ARC Prize 2025 global competition targeted the newly released ARC-AGI-2 dataset, which features greater task complexity compared to its predecessor. The Kaggle competition attracted 1,455 teams and 15,154 entries, with the top score reaching 24% on the ARC-AGI-2 private evaluation set. Paper submissions nearly doubled year-over-year to 90 entries, reflecting the growing research interest in fluid intelligence and abstract reasoning. The defining theme of 2025 is the emergence of the refinement loop -- a per-task iterative program optimization loop guided by a feedback signal. Refinement loops come in a variety of forms, in particular evolutionary program synthesis approaches and application-layer refinements to commercial AI systems. Such refinement loops are also possible in weight space, as evidenced by zero-pretraining deep learning methods which are now achieving competitive performance with remarkably small networks (7M parameters). In parallel, four frontier AI labs (Anthropic, Google DeepMind, OpenAI, and xAI) reported ARC-AGI performance in public model cards in 2025, establishing ARC-AGI as an industry standard benchmark for AI reasoning. However, our analysis indicates that current frontier AI reasoning performance remains fundamentally constrained to knowledge coverage, giving rise to new forms of benchmark contamination. In this paper, we survey the top-performing methods, examine the role of refinement loops in AGI progress, discuss knowledge-dependent overfitting, and preview ARC-AGI-3, which introduces interactive reasoning challenges that require exploration, planning, memory, goal acquisition, and alignment capabilities.

Recent improvements in conditional generative modeling have made it possible to generate high-quality images from language descriptions alone. We investigate whether these methods can directly address the problem of sequential decision-making. We view decision-making not through the lens of reinforcement learning (RL), but rather through conditional generative modeling. To our surprise, we find that our formulation leads to policies that can outperform existing offline RL approaches across standard benchmarks. By modeling a policy as a return-conditional diffusion model, we illustrate how we may circumvent the need for dynamic programming and subsequently eliminate many of the complexities that come with traditional offline RL. We further demonstrate the advantages of modeling policies as conditional diffusion models by considering two other conditioning variables: constraints and skills. Conditioning on a single constraint or skill during training leads to behaviors at test-time that can satisfy several constraints together or demonstrate a composition of skills. Our results illustrate that conditional generative modeling is a powerful tool for decision-making.

Diffusion and flow-based models have enabled significant progress in generation tasks across various modalities and have recently found applications in world modeling. However, unlike typical generation tasks that encourage sample diversity, world models entail different sources of uncertainty and require consistent samples aligned with the ground-truth trajectory, which is a limitation we empirically observe in diffusion models. We argue that a key bottleneck in learning consistent diffusion-based world models lies in the suboptimal predictive ability, which we attribute to the entanglement of condition understanding and target denoising within shared architectures and co-training schemes. To address this, we propose Foresight Diffusion (ForeDiff), a diffusion-based world modeling framework that enhances consistency by decoupling condition understanding from target denoising. ForeDiff incorporates a separate deterministic predictive stream to process conditioning inputs independently of the denoising stream, and further leverages a pretrained predictor to extract informative representations that guide generation. Extensive experiments on robot video prediction and scientific spatiotemporal forecasting show that ForeDiff improves both predictive accuracy and sample consistency over strong baselines, offering a promising direction for diffusion-based world models.

With the rapid advancement of large language models (LLMs), aligning policy models with human preferences has become increasingly critical. Direct Preference Optimization (DPO) has emerged as a promising approach for alignment, acting as an RL-free alternative to Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF). Despite DPO's various advancements and inherent limitations, an in-depth review of these aspects is currently lacking in the literature. In this work, we present a comprehensive review of the challenges and opportunities in DPO, covering theoretical analyses, variants, relevant preference datasets, and applications. Specifically, we categorize recent studies on DPO based on key research questions to provide a thorough understanding of DPO's current landscape. Additionally, we propose several future research directions to offer insights on model alignment for the research community.

Text-to-Image (T2I) models and Unified Multimodal Models (UMMs) have achieved remarkable progress in visual generation. However, their reliance on a single-pass generation paradigm limits their ability to handle complex prompts requiring iterative refinement. To enable multi-round Reflective Visual Generation (RVG), we formalize the Reason-Reflect-Rectify (R^3) loop as a core framework and introduce R^3-Bench, a benchmark of over 600 expert-annotated instances that quantifies iterative reasoning and rectification capabilities. Evaluation on R^3-Bench reveals a critical gap: while state-of-the-art models can identify generation errors, they fail to generate actionable rectification instructions. To bridge this gap, we propose R^3-Refiner, a dual-stage framework leveraging Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO) and a Hierarchical Reward Mechanism (HRM) to better align rectification with reflective reasoning. Experiments show that R^3-Refiner achieves significant improvements on R^3-Bench (+12.0% in Reflective Verdict Score, +9.0% in Rectification Score), and can be seamlessly integrated with various MLLMs to enhance the generation quality of different T2I models on GenEval++ and T2I-CompBench. Code is available at https://github.com/xiaomoguhz/R3-Bench.

Model-free reinforcement learning algorithms can compute policy gradients given sampled environment transitions, but require large amounts of data. In contrast, model-based methods can use the learned model to generate new data, but model errors and bias can render learning unstable or suboptimal. In this paper, we present a novel method that combines real-world data and a learned model in order to get the best of both worlds. The core idea is to exploit the real-world data for on-policy predictions and use the learned model only to generalize to different actions. Specifically, we use the data as time-dependent on-policy correction terms on top of a learned model, to retain the ability to generate data without accumulating errors over long prediction horizons. We motivate this method theoretically and show that it counteracts an error term for model-based policy improvement. Experiments on MuJoCo- and PyBullet-benchmarks show that our method can drastically improve existing model-based approaches without introducing additional tuning parameters.

Large Language Model (LLM)-based agentic systems rely on in-context policy documents encoding diverse business rules. As requirements grow, these documents expand rapidly, causing high computational overhead. This motivates developing internalization methods that embed policy documents into model priors while preserving performance. Prior prompt compression work targets generic prompts, but agentic policy documents span multiple complexity levels and require deeper reasoning, making internalization harder. We introduce CC-Gen, an agentic benchmark generator with Controllable Complexity across four levels, enabling systematic evaluation of agents' ability to handle complexity and offering a unified framework for assessing policy internalization. Our analysis shows that complex policy specifications governing workflows pose major reasoning challenges. Supporting internalization with gold user agent interaction trajectories containing chain-of-thought (CoT) annotations via supervised fine-tuning (SFT) is data-intensive and degrades sharply as policy complexity increases. To mitigate data and reasoning burdens, we propose Category-Aware Policy Continued Pretraining (CAP-CPT). Our automated pipeline parses policy documents to extract key specifications, grouping them into factual, behavioral, and conditional categories, and isolating complex conditions that drive workflow complexity. This guides targeted data synthesis and enables agents to internalize policy information through an autoregressive pretraining loss. Experiments show CAP-CPT improves SFT baselines in all settings, with up to 41% and 22% gains on Qwen-3-32B, achieving 97.3% prompt length reduction on CC-Gen and further enhancing tau-Bench with minimal SFT data.

Tremendous progress has been made in reinforcement learning (RL) over the past decade. Most of these advancements came through the continual development of new algorithms, which were designed using a combination of mathematical derivations, intuitions, and experimentation. Such an approach of creating algorithms manually is limited by human understanding and ingenuity. In contrast, meta-learning provides a toolkit for automatic machine learning method optimisation, potentially addressing this flaw. However, black-box approaches which attempt to discover RL algorithms with minimal prior structure have thus far not outperformed existing hand-crafted algorithms. Mirror Learning, which includes RL algorithms, such as PPO, offers a potential middle-ground starting point: while every method in this framework comes with theoretical guarantees, components that differentiate them are subject to design. In this paper we explore the Mirror Learning space by meta-learning a "drift" function. We refer to the immediate result as Learnt Policy Optimisation (LPO). By analysing LPO we gain original insights into policy optimisation which we use to formulate a novel, closed-form RL algorithm, Discovered Policy Optimisation (DPO). Our experiments in Brax environments confirm state-of-the-art performance of LPO and DPO, as well as their transfer to unseen settings.

Deploying safety-critical agents requires anticipating the consequences of actions before they are executed. While world models offer a paradigm for this proactive foresight, current approaches relying on visual simulation incur prohibitive latencies, often exceeding several seconds per step. In this work, we challenge the assumption that visual processing is necessary for failure prevention. We show that a trained policy's latent state, combined with its planned actions, already encodes sufficient information to anticipate action outcomes, making visual simulation redundant for failure prevention. To this end, we introduce DILLO (DIstiLLed Language-ActiOn World Model), a fast steering layer that shifts the paradigm from "simulate-then-act" to "describe-then-act." DILLO is trained via cross-modal distillation, where a privileged Vision Language Model teacher annotates offline trajectories and a latent-conditioned Large Language Model student learns to predict semantic outcomes. This creates a text-only inference path, bypassing heavy visual generation entirely, achieving a 14x speedup over baselines. Experiments on MetaWorld and LIBERO demonstrate that DILLO produces high-fidelity descriptions of the next state and is able to steer the policy, improving episode success rate by up to 15 pp and 9.3 pp on average across tasks.

We study why Tool-Integrated Reasoning (TIR) makes Large Language Models (LLMs) more capable. While LLMs integrated with tools like Python code interpreters show great promise, a principled theory explaining why this paradigm is effective has been missing. This work provides the first formal proof that TIR fundamentally expands an LLM's capabilities. We demonstrate that tools enable a strict expansion of the model's empirical and feasible support, breaking the capability ceiling of pure-text models by unlocking problem-solving strategies that are otherwise impossible or intractably verbose. To guide model behavior without compromising training stability and performance, we also introduce Advantage Shaping Policy Optimization (ASPO), a novel algorithm that directly modifies the advantage function to guide the policy behavior. We conduct comprehensive experiments on challenging mathematical benchmarks, leveraging a Python interpreter as the external tool. Our results show that the TIR model decisively outperforms its pure-text counterpart on the pass@k metric. Crucially, this advantage is not confined to computationally-intensive problems but extends to those requiring significant abstract insight. We further identify the emergent cognitive patterns that illustrate how models learn to think with tools. Finally, we report improved tool usage behavior with early code invocation and much more interactive turns with ASPO. Overall, our work provides the first principled explanation for TIR's success, shifting the focus from the mere fact that tools work to why and how they enable more powerful reasoning.

Generating natural language explanations for recommendations has become increasingly important in recommender systems. Traditional approaches typically treat user reviews as ground truth for explanations and focus on improving review prediction accuracy by designing various model architectures. However, due to limitations in data scale and model capability, these explanations often fail to meet key user-centric aspects such as factuality, personalization, and sentiment coherence, significantly reducing their overall helpfulness to users. In this paper, we propose a novel paradigm that refines initial explanations generated by existing explainable recommender models during the inference stage to enhance their quality in multiple aspects. Specifically, we introduce a multi-agent collaborative refinement framework based on large language models. To ensure alignment between the refinement process and user demands, we employ a plan-then-refine pattern to perform targeted modifications. To enable continuous improvements, we design a hierarchical reflection mechanism that provides feedback on the refinement process from both strategic and content perspectives. Extensive experiments on three datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of our framework.

Chain-of-Thought (CoT) reasoning has significantly advanced the problem-solving capabilities of Large Language Models (LLMs), yet conventional CoT often exhibits internal determinism during decoding, limiting exploration of plausible alternatives. Recent methods attempt to address this by generating soft abstract tokens to enable reasoning in a continuous semantic space. However, we find that such approaches remain constrained by the greedy nature of autoregressive decoding, which fundamentally isolates the model from alternative reasoning possibilities. In this work, we propose Multi-Path Perception Policy Optimization (M3PO), a novel reinforcement learning framework that explicitly injects collective insights into the reasoning process. M3PO leverages parallel policy rollouts as naturally diverse reasoning sources and integrates cross-path interactions into policy updates through a lightweight collaborative mechanism. This design allows each trajectory to refine its reasoning with peer feedback, thereby cultivating more reliable multi-step reasoning patterns. Empirical results show that M3PO achieves state-of-the-art performance on both knowledge- and reasoning-intensive benchmarks. Models trained with M3PO maintain interpretability and inference efficiency, underscoring the promise of multi-path collaborative learning for robust reasoning.

This paper proposes a novel deep reinforcement learning architecture that was inspired by previous tree structured architectures which were only useable in discrete action spaces. Policy Prediction Network offers a way to improve sample complexity and performance on continuous control problems in exchange for extra computation at training time but at no cost in computation at rollout time. Our approach integrates a mix between model-free and model-based reinforcement learning. Policy Prediction Network is the first to introduce implicit model-based learning to Policy Gradient algorithms for continuous action space and is made possible via the empirically justified clipping scheme. Our experiments are focused on the MuJoCo environments so that they can be compared with similar work done in this area.

Recent advances in flow-based offline reinforcement learning (RL) have achieved strong performance by parameterizing policies via flow matching. However, they still face critical trade-offs among expressiveness, optimality, and efficiency. In particular, existing flow policies interpret the L_2 regularization as an upper bound of the 2-Wasserstein distance (W_2), which can be problematic in offline settings. This issue stems from a fundamental geometric mismatch: the behavioral policy manifold is inherently anisotropic, whereas the L_2 (or upper bound of W_2) regularization is isotropic and density-insensitive, leading to systematically misaligned optimization directions. To address this, we revisit offline RL from a geometric perspective and show that policy refinement can be formulated as a local transport map: an initial flow policy augmented by a residual displacement. By analyzing the induced density transformation, we derive a local quadratic approximation of the KL-constrained objective governed by the Fisher information matrix, enabling a tractable anisotropic optimization formulation. By leveraging the score function embedded in the flow velocity, we obtain a corresponding quadratic constraint for efficient optimization. Our results reveal that the optimality gap in prior methods arises from their isotropic approximation. In contrast, our framework achieves a controllable approximation error within a provable neighborhood of the optimal solution. Extensive experiments demonstrate state-of-the-art performance across diverse offline RL benchmarks. See project page: https://github.com/ARC0127/Fisher-Decorator.

The past years have seen Large Language Models (LLMs) strive not only as generative models but also as agents solving textual sequential decision-making tasks. When facing complex environments where their zero-shot abilities are insufficient, recent work showed online Reinforcement Learning (RL) could be used for the LLM agent to discover and learn efficient strategies interactively. However, most prior work sticks to on-policy algorithms, which greatly reduces the scope of methods such agents could use for both exploration and exploitation, such as experience replay and hindsight relabeling. Yet, such methods may be key for LLM learning agents, and in particular when designing autonomous intrinsically motivated agents sampling and pursuing their own goals (i.e. autotelic agents). This paper presents and studies an adaptation of Soft Actor-Critic and hindsight relabeling to LLM agents. Our method not only paves the path towards autotelic LLM agents that learn online but can also outperform on-policy methods in more classic multi-goal RL environments.

Recent advances in reinforcement learning (RL) with numerical feedback, such as scalar rewards, have significantly enhanced the complex reasoning capabilities of large language models (LLMs). Despite this success, we identify three key challenges encountered by RL with solely numerical feedback: performance plateaus, limited effectiveness of self-reflection, and persistent failures. We then demonstrate that RL-finetuned models, even after exhibiting performance plateaus, can generate correct refinements on persistently failed problems by leveraging natural language feedback in the form of critiques. Building on this insight, we propose Critique-GRPO, an online RL framework that integrates both natural language and numerical feedback for effective policy optimization. Critique-GRPO enables LLMs to learn from initial responses and critique-guided refinements simultaneously while maintaining exploration. Extensive experiments using Qwen2.5-7B-Base and Qwen3-8B-Base show that Critique-GRPO consistently outperforms supervised learning-based and RL-based fine-tuning approaches across eight challenging mathematical, STEM, and general reasoning tasks, improving average pass@1 scores by approximately 4.5% and 5%, respectively. Notably, Critique-GRPO surpasses a strong baseline that incorporates expert demonstrations within online RL. Further analysis reveals two critical insights about policy exploration: (1) higher entropy does not always guarantee efficient learning from exploration, and (2) longer responses do not necessarily lead to more effective exploration.

Image-based reinforcement learning (RL) faces significant challenges in generalization when the visual environment undergoes substantial changes between training and deployment. Under such circumstances, learned policies may not perform well leading to degraded results. Previous approaches to this problem have largely focused on broadening the training observation distribution, employing techniques like data augmentation and domain randomization. However, given the sequential nature of the RL decision-making problem, it is often the case that residual errors are propagated by the learned policy model and accumulate throughout the trajectory, resulting in highly degraded performance. In this paper, we leverage the observation that predicted rewards under domain shift, even though imperfect, can still be a useful signal to guide fine-tuning. We exploit this property to fine-tune a policy using reward prediction in the target domain. We have found that, even under significant domain shift, the predicted reward can still provide meaningful signal and fine-tuning substantially improves the original policy. Our approach, termed Predicted Reward Fine-tuning (PRFT), improves performance across diverse tasks in both simulated benchmarks and real-world experiments. More information is available at project web page: https://sites.google.com/view/prft.

Preference based Reinforcement Learning (PbRL) removes the need to hand specify a reward function by learning a reward from preference feedback over policy behaviors. Current approaches to PbRL do not address the credit assignment problem inherent in determining which parts of a behavior most contributed to a preference, which result in data intensive approaches and subpar reward functions. We address such limitations by introducing a credit assignment strategy (Hindsight PRIOR) that uses a world model to approximate state importance within a trajectory and then guides rewards to be proportional to state importance through an auxiliary predicted return redistribution objective. Incorporating state importance into reward learning improves the speed of policy learning, overall policy performance, and reward recovery on both locomotion and manipulation tasks. For example, Hindsight PRIOR recovers on average significantly (p<0.05) more reward on MetaWorld (20%) and DMC (15%). The performance gains and our ablations demonstrate the benefits even a simple credit assignment strategy can have on reward learning and that state importance in forward dynamics prediction is a strong proxy for a state's contribution to a preference decision. Code repository can be found at https://github.com/apple/ml-rlhf-hindsight-prior.

We introduce Diffusion Policy Policy Optimization, DPPO, an algorithmic framework including best practices for fine-tuning diffusion-based policies (e.g. Diffusion Policy) in continuous control and robot learning tasks using the policy gradient (PG) method from reinforcement learning (RL). PG methods are ubiquitous in training RL policies with other policy parameterizations; nevertheless, they had been conjectured to be less efficient for diffusion-based policies. Surprisingly, we show that DPPO achieves the strongest overall performance and efficiency for fine-tuning in common benchmarks compared to other RL methods for diffusion-based policies and also compared to PG fine-tuning of other policy parameterizations. Through experimental investigation, we find that DPPO takes advantage of unique synergies between RL fine-tuning and the diffusion parameterization, leading to structured and on-manifold exploration, stable training, and strong policy robustness. We further demonstrate the strengths of DPPO in a range of realistic settings, including simulated robotic tasks with pixel observations, and via zero-shot deployment of simulation-trained policies on robot hardware in a long-horizon, multi-stage manipulation task. Website with code: diffusion-ppo.github.io

Despite the promise of RLHF in aligning LLMs with human preferences, it often leads to superficial alignment, prioritizing stylistic changes over improving downstream performance of LLMs. Underspecified preferences could obscure directions to align the models. Lacking exploration restricts identification of desirable outputs to improve the models. To overcome these challenges, we propose a novel framework: Reinforcement Learning from Reflective Feedback (RLRF), which leverages fine-grained feedback based on detailed criteria to improve the core capabilities of LLMs. RLRF employs a self-reflection mechanism to systematically explore and refine LLM responses, then fine-tuning the models via a RL algorithm along with promising responses. Our experiments across Just-Eval, Factuality, and Mathematical Reasoning demonstrate the efficacy and transformative potential of RLRF beyond superficial surface-level adjustment.

Direct Preference Optimization (DPO) has become a widely used training method for the instruction fine-tuning of large language models (LLMs). In this work, we explore an under-investigated aspect of DPO - its dependency on the reference model or policy. Such reference policies, typically instantiated as the model to be further fine-tuned, are important since they can impose an upper limit on DPO's effectiveness. Therefore, we address three related research questions in this work. First, we explore the optimal strength of the KL-divergence constraint in DPO, which penalizes deviations from the reference policy, and find that DPO is sensitive to this strength. Next, we examine the necessity of reference policies for instruction fine-tuning by providing both theoretical and empirical comparisons between DPO and related learning objectives, demonstrating DPO's superiority. Additionally, we investigate whether DPO benefits from stronger reference policies, finding that a stronger reference policy can lead to improved performance, but only when it is similar to the model being fine-tuned. Our findings highlight the confounding role of reference policies in DPO and offer insights for best practices, while also identifying open research questions for future studies.

Direct Preference Optimization (DPO) and its variants have become standard for aligning Large Language Models due to their simplicity and offline stability. However, we identify two fundamental limitations. First, the optimal policy depends on arbitrary modeling choices (scalarization function, reference policy), yielding behavior reflecting parameterization artifacts rather than true preferences. Second, treating response generation in isolation fails to leverage comparative information in pairwise data, leaving the model's capacity for intrinsic self-reflection untapped. To address it, we propose Intrinsic Self-reflective Preference Optimization (InSPO), deriving a globally optimal policy conditioning on both context and alternative responses. We prove this formulation superior to DPO/RLHF while guaranteeing invariance to scalarization and reference choices. InSPO serves as a plug-and-play enhancement without architectural changes or inference overhead. Experiments demonstrate consistent improvements in win rates and length-controlled metrics, validating that unlocking self-reflection yields more robust, human-aligned LLMs. Our Code is available at https://github.com/Skylanding/InSPO.

While scaling individual Large Language Models (LLMs) has delivered remarkable progress, the next frontier lies in scaling collaboration through multi-agent systems (MAS). However, purely autonomous MAS remain ''closed-world'' systems, constrained by the static knowledge horizon of pre-trained models. This limitation makes them brittle on tasks requiring knowledge beyond training data, often leading to collective failure under novel challenges. To address this, we propose the Human-In-the-Loop Multi-Agent Collaboration (HILA) framework, a principled paradigm for human--agent collaboration. HILA trains agents to learn a metacognitive policy that governs when to solve problems autonomously and when to defer to a human expert. To operationalize this policy, we introduce Dual-Loop Policy Optimization, which disentangles immediate decision-making from long-term capability growth. The inner loop applies Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO) with a cost-aware reward to optimize deferral decisions, while the outer loop implements continual learning, transforming expert feedback into high-quality supervised signals that strengthen the agent's reasoning ability. Experiments on challenging mathematical and problem-solving benchmarks show that HILA, equipped with Dual-Loop Policy Optimization, consistently outperforms advanced MAS, establishing a principled foundation for collaborative and continually improving agentic systems.

Aligning large language models (LLMs) on domain-specific data remains a fundamental challenge. Supervised fine-tuning (SFT) offers a straightforward way to inject domain knowledge but often degrades the model's generality. In contrast, on-policy reinforcement learning (RL) preserves generality but fails to effectively assimilate hard samples that exceed the model's current reasoning level. Recent off-policy RL attempts improve hard sample utilization, yet they suffer from severe training instability due to the forced distribution shift toward off-policy knowledge. To reconcile effective off-policy knowledge absorption with the stability of on-policy RL, we propose Rephrasing Policy Optimization (RePO). In RePO, the policy model is prompted to first comprehend off-policy knowledge and then rephrase it into trajectories that conform to its own stylistic and parametric distribution. RePO dynamically replaces low-reward rollouts with these rephrased, high-quality trajectories. This strategy guides the model toward correct reasoning paths while strictly preserving on-policy training dynamics. Experiments on several benchmarks demonstrate that RePO improves hard-sample utilization and outperforms existing baselines, achieving state-of-the-art performance.

Future prediction is a complex task for LLM agents, requiring a high level of analytical thinking, information gathering, contextual understanding, and decision-making under uncertainty. Agents must not only gather and interpret vast amounts of dynamic information but also integrate diverse data sources, weigh uncertainties, and adapt predictions based on emerging trends, just as human experts do in fields like politics, economics, and finance. Despite its importance, no large-scale benchmark exists for evaluating agents on future prediction, largely due to challenges in handling real-time updates and retrieving timely, accurate answers. To address this, we introduce FutureX, a dynamic and live evaluation benchmark specifically designed for LLM agents performing future prediction tasks. FutureX is the largest and most diverse live benchmark for future prediction, supporting real-time daily updates and eliminating data contamination through an automated pipeline for question gathering and answer collection. We evaluate 25 LLM/agent models, including those with reasoning, search capabilities, and integration of external tools such as the open-source Deep Research Agent and closed-source Deep Research models. This comprehensive evaluation assesses agents' adaptive reasoning and performance in dynamic environments. Additionally, we provide in-depth analyses of agents' failure modes and performance pitfalls in future-oriented tasks, including the vulnerability to fake web pages and the temporal validity. Our goal is to establish a dynamic, contamination-free evaluation standard that drives the development of LLM agents capable of performing at the level of professional human analysts in complex reasoning and predictive thinking.

As AI systems move from generating text to accomplishing goals through sustained interaction, the ability to model environment dynamics becomes a central bottleneck. Agents that manipulate objects, navigate software, coordinate with others, or design experiments require predictive environment models, yet the term world model carries different meanings across research communities. We introduce a "levels x laws" taxonomy organized along two axes. The first defines three capability levels: L1 Predictor, which learns one-step local transition operators; L2 Simulator, which composes them into multi-step, action-conditioned rollouts that respect domain laws; and L3 Evolver, which autonomously revises its own model when predictions fail against new evidence. The second identifies four governing-law regimes: physical, digital, social, and scientific. These regimes determine what constraints a world model must satisfy and where it is most likely to fail. Using this framework, we synthesize over 400 works and summarize more than 100 representative systems spanning model-based reinforcement learning, video generation, web and GUI agents, multi-agent social simulation, and AI-driven scientific discovery. We analyze methods, failure modes, and evaluation practices across level-regime pairs, propose decision-centric evaluation principles and a minimal reproducible evaluation package, and outline architectural guidance, open problems, and governance challenges. The resulting roadmap connects previously isolated communities and charts a path from passive next-step prediction toward world models that can simulate, and ultimately reshape, the environments in which agents operate.

Recent advances in deep-research agents have shown promise for autonomous knowledge construction through dynamic reasoning over external sources. However, existing approaches rely on a mono-contextual paradigm that accumulates all information in a single, expanding context window, leading to context suffocation and noise contamination that limit their effectiveness on long-horizon tasks. We introduce IterResearch, a novel iterative deep-research paradigm that reformulates long-horizon research as a Markov Decision Process with strategic workspace reconstruction. By maintaining an evolving report as memory and periodically synthesizing insights, our approach preserves consistent reasoning capacity across arbitrary exploration depths. We further develop Efficiency-Aware Policy Optimization (EAPO), a reinforcement learning framework that incentivizes efficient exploration through geometric reward discounting and enables stable distributed training via adaptive downsampling. Extensive experiments demonstrate that IterResearch achieves substantial improvements over existing open-source agents with average +14.5pp across six benchmarks and narrows the gap with frontier proprietary systems. Remarkably, our paradigm exhibits unprecedented interaction scaling, extending to 2048 interactions with dramatic performance gains (from 3.5\% to 42.5\%), and serves as an effective prompting strategy, improving frontier models by up to 19.2pp over ReAct on long-horizon tasks. These findings position IterResearch as a versatile solution for long-horizon reasoning, effective both as a trained agent and as a prompting paradigm for frontier models.

Current large language models (LLMs) excel in verifiable domains where outputs can be checked before action but prove less reliable for high-stakes strategic decisions with uncertain outcomes. This gap, driven by mutually reinforcing cognitive biases in both humans and artificial intelligence (AI) systems, threatens the defensibility of valuations and sustainability of investments in the sector. This report describes a framework emerging from systematic qualitative assessment across 7 frontier-grade LLMs and 3 market-facing venture vignettes under time pressure. Detailed prompting specifying decision partnership and explicitly instructing avoidance of sycophancy, confabulation, solution drift, and nihilism achieved initial partnership state but failed to maintain it under operational pressure. Sustaining protective partnership state required an emergent 7-stage calibration sequence, built upon a 4-stage initialization process, within a 5-layer protection architecture enabling bias self-monitoring, human-AI adversarial challenge, partnership state verification, performance degradation detection, and stakeholder protection. Three discoveries resulted: partnership state is achievable through ordered calibration but requires emergent maintenance protocols; reliability degrades when architectural drift and context exhaustion align; and dissolution discipline prevents costly pursuit of fundamentally wrong directions. Cross-model validation revealed systematic performance differences across LLM architectures. This approach demonstrates that human-AI teams can achieve cognitive partnership capable of preventing avoidable regret in high-stakes decisions, addressing return-on-investment expectations that depend on AI systems supporting consequential decision-making without introducing preventable cognitive traps when verification arrives too late.

Large Language Model (LLM) agents are increasingly deployed in environments that generate massive, dynamic contexts. However, a critical bottleneck remains: while agents have access to this context, their static prompts lack the mechanisms to manage it effectively, leading to recurring Corrective and Enhancement failures. To address this capability gap, we introduce SCOPE (Self-evolving Context Optimization via Prompt Evolution). SCOPE frames context management as an online optimization problem, synthesizing guidelines from execution traces to automatically evolve the agent's prompt. We propose a Dual-Stream mechanism that balances tactical specificity (resolving immediate errors) with strategic generality (evolving long-term principles). Furthermore, we introduce Perspective-Driven Exploration to maximize strategy coverage, increasing the likelihood that the agent has the correct strategy for any given task. Experiments on the HLE benchmark show that SCOPE improves task success rates from 14.23\% to 38.64\% without human intervention. We make our code publicly available at https://github.com/JarvisPei/SCOPE.

Recent advances in LLM agents have largely built on reasoning backbones like ReAct, which interleave thought and action in complex environments. However, ReAct often produces ungrounded or incoherent reasoning steps, leading to misalignment between the agent's actual state and goal. Our analysis finds that this stems from ReAct's inability to maintain consistent internal beliefs and goal alignment, causing compounding errors and hallucinations. To address this, we introduce ReflAct, a novel backbone that shifts reasoning from merely planning next actions to continuously reflecting on the agent's state relative to its goal. By explicitly grounding decisions in states and enforcing ongoing goal alignment, ReflAct dramatically improves strategic reliability. This design delivers substantial empirical gains: ReflAct surpasses ReAct by 27.7% on average, achieving a 93.3% success rate in ALFWorld. Notably, ReflAct even outperforms ReAct with added enhancement modules (e.g., Reflexion, WKM), showing that strengthening the core reasoning backbone is key to reliable agent performance.

We propose Multi Agent Reflective Policy Optimization (MARPO) to alleviate the issue of sample inefficiency in multi agent reinforcement learning. MARPO consists of two key components: a reflection mechanism that leverages subsequent trajectories to enhance sample efficiency, and an asymmetric clipping mechanism that is derived from the KL divergence and dynamically adjusts the clipping range to improve training stability. We evaluate MARPO in classic multi agent environments, where it consistently outperforms other methods.

Decision Transformer (DT) is an innovative algorithm leveraging recent advances of the transformer architecture in reinforcement learning (RL). However, a notable limitation of DT is its reliance on recalling trajectories from datasets, losing the capability to seamlessly stitch sub-optimal trajectories together. In this work we introduce a general sequence modeling framework for studying sequential decision making through the lens of Hierarchical RL. At the time of making decisions, a high-level policy first proposes an ideal prompt for the current state, a low-level policy subsequently generates an action conditioned on the given prompt. We show DT emerges as a special case of this framework with certain choices of high-level and low-level policies, and discuss the potential failure of these choices. Inspired by these observations, we study how to jointly optimize the high-level and low-level policies to enable the stitching ability, which further leads to the development of new offline RL algorithms. Our empirical results clearly show that the proposed algorithms significantly surpass DT on several control and navigation benchmarks. We hope our contributions can inspire the integration of transformer architectures within the field of RL.

Large language models have demonstrated impressive reasoning capabilities but are inherently limited by their knowledge reservoir. Retrieval-augmented reasoning mitigates this limitation by allowing LLMs to query external resources, but existing methods often retrieve irrelevant or noisy information, hindering accurate reasoning. In this paper, we propose AutoRefine, a reinforcement learning post-training framework that adopts a new ``search-and-refine-during-think'' paradigm. AutoRefine introduces explicit knowledge refinement steps between successive search calls, enabling the model to iteratively filter, distill, and organize evidence before generating an answer. Furthermore, we incorporate tailored retrieval-specific rewards alongside answer correctness rewards using group relative policy optimization. Experiments on single-hop and multi-hop QA benchmarks demonstrate that AutoRefine significantly outperforms existing approaches, particularly in complex, multi-hop reasoning scenarios. Detailed analysis shows that AutoRefine issues frequent, higher-quality searches and synthesizes evidence effectively.

We present Future-KL Influenced Policy Optimization (FIPO), a reinforcement learning algorithm designed to overcome reasoning bottlenecks in large language models. While GRPO style training scales effectively, it typically relies on outcome-based rewards (ORM) that distribute a global advantage uniformly across every token in a trajectory. We argue that this coarse-grained credit assignment imposes a performance ceiling by failing to distinguish critical logical pivots from trivial tokens. FIPO addresses this by incorporating discounted future-KL divergence into the policy update, creating a dense advantage formulation that re-weights tokens based on their influence on subsequent trajectory behavior. Empirically, FIPO enables models to break through the length stagnation seen in standard baselines. Evaluated on Qwen2.5-32B, FIPO extends the average chain-of-thought length from roughly 4,000 to over 10,000 tokens and increases AIME 2024 Pass@1 accuracy from 50.0% to a peak of 58.0% (converging at approximately 56.0\%). This outperforms both DeepSeek-R1-Zero-Math-32B (around 47.0%) and o1-mini (approximately 56.0%). Our results suggest that establishing dense advantage formulations is a vital path for evolving ORM-based algorithms to unlock the full reasoning potential of base models. We open-source our training system, built on the verl framework.

World action models jointly predict future video and action during training, raising an open question about what role the future-prediction branch actually plays. A recent finding shows that this branch can be removed at inference with little to no loss on common manipulation benchmarks, suggesting that future information may act merely as a regularizer on the shared visual backbone. We propose instead that joint training induces an action-conditioned correction that privileged future observations impose on action denoising, and that current-only policies capture this correction only partially. Making the account precise, we formulate privileged foresight as a residual in the action-denoising direction -- the difference between what a model predicts given the true future and what it predicts given only the current frame -- and introduce Privileged Foresight Distillation (PFD), which transfers this residual from a training-time teacher into a small adapter on a current-only student. The teacher and student share the same backbone and differ only in the attention mask over video tokens; future video is never generated at inference. Controlled experiments verify that this gain reflects a genuine future-conditioned correction rather than a side effect of capacity or regularization. Empirically, PFD achieves consistent improvements on LIBERO and RoboTwin manipulation benchmarks while preserving the current-only inference interface at negligible added latency. This view reframes the role of future information in world action models: not as a target to predict, nor as a regularizer to absorb, but as a compressible correction to be distilled.

In many real-world settings, agents must learn from an offline dataset gathered by some prior behavior policy. Such a setting naturally leads to distribution shift between the behavior policy and the target policy being trained - requiring policy conservatism to avoid instability and overestimation bias. Autoregressive world models offer a different solution to this by generating synthetic, on-policy experience. However, in practice, model rollouts must be severely truncated to avoid compounding error. As an alternative, we propose policy-guided diffusion. Our method uses diffusion models to generate entire trajectories under the behavior distribution, applying guidance from the target policy to move synthetic experience further on-policy. We show that policy-guided diffusion models a regularized form of the target distribution that balances action likelihood under both the target and behavior policies, leading to plausible trajectories with high target policy probability, while retaining a lower dynamics error than an offline world model baseline. Using synthetic experience from policy-guided diffusion as a drop-in substitute for real data, we demonstrate significant improvements in performance across a range of standard offline reinforcement learning algorithms and environments. Our approach provides an effective alternative to autoregressive offline world models, opening the door to the controllable generation of synthetic training data.

Embodied LLMs endow robots with high-level task reasoning, but they cannot reflect on what went wrong or why, turning deployment into a sequence of independent trials where mistakes repeat rather than accumulate into experience. Drawing upon human reflective practitioners, we introduce Reflective Test-Time Planning, which integrates two modes of reflection: reflection-in-action, where the agent uses test-time scaling to generate and score multiple candidate actions using internal reflections before execution; and reflection-on-action, which uses test-time training to update both its internal reflection model and its action policy based on external reflections after execution. We also include retrospective reflection, allowing the agent to re-evaluate earlier decisions and perform model updates with hindsight for proper long-horizon credit assignment. Experiments on our newly-designed Long-Horizon Household benchmark and MuJoCo Cupboard Fitting benchmark show significant gains over baseline models, with ablative studies validating the complementary roles of reflection-in-action and reflection-on-action. Qualitative analyses, including real-robot trials, highlight behavioral correction through reflection.

Addressing the discrepancies between predictions and actual outcomes often aids individuals in expanding their thought processes and engaging in reflection, thereby facilitating reasoning in the correct direction. In this paper, we introduce PreAct, an agent framework that integrates prediction with reasoning and action. Leveraging the information provided by predictions, a large language model (LLM) based agent can offer more diversified and strategically oriented reasoning, which in turn leads to more effective actions that help the agent complete complex tasks. Our experiments demonstrate that PreAct outperforms the ReAct approach in accomplishing complex tasks and that PreAct can be co-enhanced when combined with Reflexion methods. We prompt the model with different numbers of historical predictions and find that historical predictions have a sustained positive effect on LLM planning. The differences in single-step reasoning between PreAct and ReAct show that PreAct indeed offers advantages in terms of diversity and strategic directivity over ReAct.

Recent progress in Large Multi-modal Models (LMMs) has enabled effective vision-language reasoning, yet the ability to understand video content remains constrained by suboptimal frame selection strategies. Existing approaches often rely on static heuristics or external retrieval modules to feed frame information into video-LLMs, which may fail to provide the query-relevant information. In this work, we introduce ReFoCUS (Reinforcement-guided Frame Optimization for Contextual UnderStanding), a novel frame-level policy optimization framework that shifts the optimization target from textual responses to visual input selection. ReFoCUS learns a frame selection policy via reinforcement learning, using reward signals derived from a reference LMM to reflect the model's intrinsic preferences for frames that best support temporally grounded responses. To efficiently explore the large combinatorial frame space, we employ an autoregressive, conditional selection architecture that ensures temporal coherence while reducing complexity. Our approach does not require explicit supervision at the frame-level and consistently improves reasoning performance across multiple video QA benchmarks, highlighting the benefits of aligning frame selection with model-internal utility.

Direct Preference Optimization (DPO) has emerged as a lightweight and effective alternative to Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) and Reinforcement Learning with AI Feedback (RLAIF) for aligning large language and vision-language models. However, the standard DPO formulation, in which both the chosen and rejected responses are generated by the same policy, suffers from a weak learning signal because the two responses often share similar errors and exhibit small Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence. This leads to slow and unstable convergence. To address this limitation, we introduce Reflective Preference Optimization (RPO), a new framework that incorporates hint-guided reflection into the DPO paradigm. RPO uses external models to identify hallucination sources and generate concise reflective hints, enabling the construction of on-policy preference pairs with stronger contrastiveness and clearer preference signals. We theoretically show that conditioning on hints increases the expected preference margin through mutual information and improves sample efficiency while remaining within the policy distribution family. Empirically, RPO achieves superior alignment with fewer training samples and iterations, substantially reducing hallucination rates and delivering state-of-the-art performance across multimodal benchmarks.

Current robotic planning methods often rely on predicting multi-frame images with full pixel details. While this fine-grained approach can serve as a generic world model, it introduces two significant challenges for downstream policy learning: substantial computational costs that hinder real-time deployment, and accumulated inaccuracies that can mislead action extraction. Planning with coarse-grained subgoals partially alleviates efficiency issues. However, their forward planning schemes can still result in off-task predictions due to accumulation errors, leading to misalignment with long-term goals. This raises a critical question: Can robotic planning be both efficient and accurate enough for real-time control in long-horizon, multi-stage tasks? To address this, we propose a Latent Space Backward Planning scheme (LBP), which begins by grounding the task into final latent goals, followed by recursively predicting intermediate subgoals closer to the current state. The grounded final goal enables backward subgoal planning to always remain aware of task completion, facilitating on-task prediction along the entire planning horizon. The subgoal-conditioned policy incorporates a learnable token to summarize the subgoal sequences and determines how each subgoal guides action extraction. Through extensive simulation and real-robot long-horizon experiments, we show that LBP outperforms existing fine-grained and forward planning methods, achieving SOTA performance. Project Page: https://lbp-authors.github.io

In hybrid human-machine deferral frameworks, a classifier can defer uncertain cases to human decision-makers (who are often themselves fallible). Prior work on simultaneous training of such classifier and deferral models has typically assumed access to an oracle during training to obtain true class labels for training samples, but in practice there often is no such oracle. In contrast, we consider a "closed" decision-making pipeline in which the same fallible human decision-makers used in deferral also provide training labels. How can imperfect and biased human expert labels be used to train a fair and accurate deferral framework? Our key insight is that by exploiting weak prior information, we can match experts to input examples to ensure fairness and accuracy of the resulting deferral framework, even when imperfect and biased experts are used in place of ground truth labels. The efficacy of our approach is shown both by theoretical analysis and by evaluation on two tasks.

Existing reinforcement learning (RL) approaches treat large language models (LLMs) as a single unified policy, overlooking their internal mechanisms. Understanding how policy evolves across layers and modules is therefore crucial for enabling more targeted optimization and raveling out complex reasoning mechanisms. In this paper, we decompose the language model policy by leveraging the intrinsic split of the Transformer residual stream and the equivalence between the composition of hidden states with the unembedding matrix and the resulting samplable policy. This decomposition reveals Internal Layer Policies, corresponding to contributions from individual layers, and Internal Modular Policies, which align with the self-attention and feed-forward network (FFN) components within each layer. By analyzing the entropy of internal policy, we find that: (a) Early layers keep high entropy for exploration, top layers converge to near-zero entropy for refinement, with convergence patterns varying across model series. (b) LLama's prediction space rapidly converges in the final layer, whereas Qwen-series models, especially Qwen3, exhibit a more human-like, progressively structured reasoning pattern. Motivated by these findings, we propose Bottom-up Policy Optimization (BuPO), a novel RL paradigm that directly optimizes the internal layer policy during early training. By aligning training objective at lower layer, BuPO reconstructs foundational reasoning capabilities and achieves superior performance. Extensive experiments on complex reasoning benchmarks demonstrates the effectiveness of our method. Our code is available at https://github.com/Trae1ounG/BuPO.

Predicting future dynamics is crucial for applications like autonomous driving and robotics, where understanding the environment is key. Existing pixel-level methods are computationally expensive and often focus on irrelevant details. To address these challenges, we introduce DINO-Foresight, a novel framework that operates in the semantic feature space of pretrained Vision Foundation Models (VFMs). Our approach trains a masked feature transformer in a self-supervised manner to predict the evolution of VFM features over time. By forecasting these features, we can apply off-the-shelf, task-specific heads for various scene understanding tasks. In this framework, VFM features are treated as a latent space, to which different heads attach to perform specific tasks for future-frame analysis. Extensive experiments show that our framework outperforms existing methods, demonstrating its robustness and scalability. Additionally, we highlight how intermediate transformer representations in DINO-Foresight improve downstream task performance, offering a promising path for the self-supervised enhancement of VFM features. We provide the implementation code at https://github.com/Sta8is/DINO-Foresight .

This paper provides a self-contained, from-scratch, exposition of key algorithms for instruction tuning of models: SFT, Rejection Sampling, REINFORCE, Trust Region Policy Optimization (TRPO), Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO), Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO), and Direct Preference Optimization (DPO). Explanations of these algorithms often assume prior knowledge, lack critical details, and/or are overly generalized and complex. Here, each method is discussed and developed step by step using simplified and explicit notation focused on LLMs, aiming to eliminate ambiguity and provide a clear and intuitive understanding of the concepts. By minimizing detours into the broader RL literature and connecting concepts to LLMs, we eliminate superfluous abstractions and reduce cognitive overhead. Following this exposition, we provide a literature review of new techniques and approaches beyond those detailed. Finally, new ideas for research and exploration in the form of GRAPE (Generalized Relative Advantage Policy Evolution) are presented.

Forecasting multiple future events within a given time horizon is essential for applications in finance, retail, social networks, and healthcare. Marked Temporal Point Processes (MTPP) provide a principled framework to model both the timing and labels of events. However, most existing research focuses on predicting only the next event, leaving long-horizon forecasting largely underexplored. To address this gap, we introduce HoTPP, the first benchmark specifically designed to rigorously evaluate long-horizon predictions. We identify shortcomings in widely used evaluation metrics, propose a theoretically grounded T-mAP metric, present strong statistical baselines, and offer efficient implementations of popular models. Our empirical results demonstrate that modern MTPP approaches often underperform simple statistical baselines. Furthermore, we analyze the diversity of predicted sequences and find that most methods exhibit mode collapse. Finally, we analyze the impact of autoregression and intensity-based losses on prediction quality, and outline promising directions for future research. The HoTPP source code, hyperparameters, and full evaluation results are available at GitHub.

Much of the advancement of Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning (MARL) in imperfect-information games has historically depended on manual iterative refinement of baselines. While foundational families like Counterfactual Regret Minimization (CFR) and Policy Space Response Oracles (PSRO) rest on solid theoretical ground, the design of their most effective variants often relies on human intuition to navigate a vast algorithmic design space. In this work, we propose the use of AlphaEvolve, an evolutionary coding agent powered by large language models, to automatically discover new multiagent learning algorithms. We demonstrate the generality of this framework by evolving novel variants for two distinct paradigms of game-theoretic learning. First, in the domain of iterative regret minimization, we evolve the logic governing regret accumulation and policy derivation, discovering a new algorithm, Volatility-Adaptive Discounted (VAD-)CFR. VAD-CFR employs novel, non-intuitive mechanisms-including volatility-sensitive discounting, consistency-enforced optimism, and a hard warm-start policy accumulation schedule-to outperform state-of-the-art baselines like Discounted Predictive CFR+. Second, in the regime of population based training algorithms, we evolve training-time and evaluation-time meta strategy solvers for PSRO, discovering a new variant, Smoothed Hybrid Optimistic Regret (SHOR-)PSRO. SHOR-PSRO introduces a hybrid meta-solver that linearly blends Optimistic Regret Matching with a smoothed, temperature-controlled distribution over best pure strategies. By dynamically annealing this blending factor and diversity bonuses during training, the algorithm automates the transition from population diversity to rigorous equilibrium finding, yielding superior empirical convergence compared to standard static meta-solvers.

Truly proactive AI systems must anticipate what we will do next. This foresight demands far richer information than the sparse signals we type into our prompts -- it demands reasoning over the entire context of what we see and do. We formalize this as next action prediction (NAP): given a sequence of a user's multimodal interactions with a computer (screenshots, clicks, sensor data), predict that user's next action. Progress on this task requires both new data and modeling approaches. To scale data, we annotate longitudinal, naturalistic computer use with vision-language models. We release an open-source pipeline for performing this labeling on private infrastructure, and label over 360K actions across one month of continuous phone usage from 20 users, amounting to 1,800 hours of screen time. We then introduce LongNAP, a user model that combines parametric and in-context learning to reason over long interaction histories. LongNAP is trained via policy gradient methods to generate user-specific reasoning traces given some context; retrieve relevant traces from a library of past traces; and then apply retrieved traces in-context to predict future actions. Using an LLM-as-judge evaluation metric (0-1 similarity to ground truth), LongNAP significantly outperforms supervised finetuning and prompted baselines on held-out data (by 79% and 39% respectively). Additionally, LongNAP generalizes to held out users when trained across individuals. The space of next actions a user might take at any moment is unbounded, spanning thousands of possible outcomes. Despite this, 17.1% of LongNAP's predicted trajectories are well-aligned with what a user does next (LLM-judge score geq 0.5). This rises to 26% when we filter to highly confident predictions. In sum, we argue that learning from the full context of user behavior to anticipate user needs is now a viable task with substantial opportunity.

Diffusion models have been extensively leveraged for learning robot skills from demonstrations. These policies are conditioned on several observational modalities such as proprioception, vision and tactile. However, observational modalities have varying levels of influence for different tasks that diffusion polices fail to capture. In this work, we propose 'Factorized Diffusion Policies' abbreviated as FDP, a novel policy formulation that enables observational modalities to have differing influence on the action diffusion process by design. This results in learning policies where certain observations modalities can be prioritized over the others such as vision>tactile or proprioception>vision. FDP achieves modality prioritization by factorizing the observational conditioning for diffusion process, resulting in more performant and robust policies. Our factored approach shows strong performance improvements in low-data regimes with 15% absolute improvement in success rate on several simulated benchmarks when compared to a standard diffusion policy that jointly conditions on all input modalities. Moreover, our benchmark and real-world experiments show that factored policies are naturally more robust with 40% higher absolute success rate across several visuomotor tasks under distribution shifts such as visual distractors or camera occlusions, where existing diffusion policies fail catastrophically. FDP thus offers a safer and more robust alternative to standard diffusion policies for real-world deployment. Videos are available at https://fdp-policy.github.io/fdp-policy/ .

Flow-based generative models, including diffusion models, excel at modeling continuous distributions in high-dimensional spaces. In this work, we introduce Flow Policy Optimization (FPO), a simple on-policy reinforcement learning algorithm that brings flow matching into the policy gradient framework. FPO casts policy optimization as maximizing an advantage-weighted ratio computed from the conditional flow matching loss, in a manner compatible with the popular PPO-clip framework. It sidesteps the need for exact likelihood computation while preserving the generative capabilities of flow-based models. Unlike prior approaches for diffusion-based reinforcement learning that bind training to a specific sampling method, FPO is agnostic to the choice of diffusion or flow integration at both training and inference time. We show that FPO can train diffusion-style policies from scratch in a variety of continuous control tasks. We find that flow-based models can capture multimodal action distributions and achieve higher performance than Gaussian policies, particularly in under-conditioned settings.

Inventory-policy comparisons are often difficult to interpret because performance depends on the evaluation contract as much as on the policy itself. Differences in topology, demand regime, information access, feasibility constraints, shortage treatment, and Key Performance Indicator (KPI) definitions can change method rankings. We present gym-invmgmt, a Gymnasium-compatible extension of the OR-Gym inventory-management lineage for auditable cross-paradigm evaluation. The benchmark evaluates optimization, heuristic, and learned controllers under a shared CoreEnv transition, reward, action-bound, and KPI contract, while varying stress conditions through a 22-scenario core grid plus four supplemental MARL-mode rows. Within these released scenarios, informed stochastic programming provides the strongest non-oracle reference, reflecting the value of scenario hedging under forecast access, but at substantially higher online computational cost. Among learned controllers, the Proximal Policy Optimization Transformer variant (PPO-Transformer) achieves the strongest learned-policy quality at fast inference, while Residual Reinforcement Learning (Residual RL) provides competitive hybrid performance. The graph neural network variant (PPO-GNN) is highly competitive on the default divergent topology but less robust on the serial topology. Imitation learning performs well in stationary regimes but degrades under demand shift, and the bounded Large Language Model (LLM) policy-parameter baseline is best interpreted as a diagnostic controller rather than an autonomous inventory optimizer. Overall, the benchmark identifies scenario-conditioned leaders while showing that performance depends jointly on information access, demand shift, topology, and policy representation.

Model-based reinforcement learning promises to learn an optimal policy from fewer interactions with the environment compared to model-free reinforcement learning by learning an intermediate model of the environment in order to predict future interactions. When predicting a sequence of interactions, the rollout length, which limits the prediction horizon, is a critical hyperparameter as accuracy of the predictions diminishes in the regions that are further away from real experience. As a result, with a longer rollout length, an overall worse policy is learned in the long run. Thus, the hyperparameter provides a trade-off between quality and efficiency. In this work, we frame the problem of tuning the rollout length as a meta-level sequential decision-making problem that optimizes the final policy learned by model-based reinforcement learning given a fixed budget of environment interactions by adapting the hyperparameter dynamically based on feedback from the learning process, such as accuracy of the model and the remaining budget of interactions. We use model-free deep reinforcement learning to solve the meta-level decision problem and demonstrate that our approach outperforms common heuristic baselines on two well-known reinforcement learning environments.

Recent advancements in large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated that progressive refinement, rather than providing a single answer, results in more accurate and thoughtful outputs. However, existing methods often rely heavily on supervision signals to evaluate previous responses, making it difficult to assess output quality in more open-ended scenarios effectively. Additionally, these methods are typically designed for specific tasks, which limits their generalization to new domains. To address these limitations, we propose Progressive Thought Refinement (PTR), a framework that enables LLMs to refine their responses progressively. PTR operates in two phases: (1) Thought data construction stage: We propose a weak and strong model collaborative selection strategy to build a high-quality progressive refinement dataset to ensure logical consistency from thought to answers, and the answers are gradually refined in each round. (2) Thought-Mask Fine-Tuning Phase: We design a training structure to mask the "thought" and adjust loss weights to encourage LLMs to refine prior thought, teaching them to implicitly understand "how to improve" rather than "what is correct." Experimental results show that PTR significantly enhances LLM performance across ten diverse tasks (avg. from 49.6% to 53.5%) without task-specific fine-tuning. Notably, in more open-ended tasks, LLMs also demonstrate substantial improvements in the quality of responses beyond mere accuracy, suggesting that PTR truly teaches LLMs to self-improve over time.

AI systems increasingly participate in their own improvement: revising their outputs, adapting their own harnesses during deployment, training on data they generate, and, increasingly, conducting AI research itself. This literature is described under a vocabulary ("self-refine," "self-reward," "self-play," "self-evolve") that conflates fundamentally different ambitions. We survey 1,250 arXiv papers (2024-2026) along two axes: what the system improves -- its behavior in deployment, its policy through training, its evaluator, or the research process itself -- and the degree of loop closure (human-in-the-loop to fully closed). The taxonomy separates bounded self-refinement -- convergent, evaluable, and already industrial practice -- from open-ended recursive self-improvement (RSI), which remains bounded by grounding requirements, collapse dynamics, and compute constraints on every measured axis. Its distinctive feature is a dedicated category for self-evaluation: every improvement loop is a claim that some signal can substitute for human judgment. We survey the evaluator design space -- judges, process reward models, verifiers, rubrics, meta-evaluation -- order the signals into a verification hierarchy from formal verifiers (strongest) to intrinsic self-assessment (weakest), and observe that demonstrated self-improvement strength tracks this hierarchy, that its failure modes (self-confirming loops, model collapse, diversity collapse) follow from its violations, and that the "research direction-setting" bottleneck keeping humans in the loop sits at the top of that hierarchy. We connect the technical literature to the theory of RSI limits and to the safety and governance questions raised by frontier-lab accounts of closing the loop, and identify governance-grade measurement of self-improvement as the field's most underpopulated niche.

Embodied navigation in open, dynamic environments demands accurate foresight of how the world will evolve and how actions will unfold over time. We propose AstraNav-World, an end-to-end world model that jointly reasons about future visual states and action sequences within a unified probabilistic framework. Our framework integrates a diffusion-based video generator with a vision-language policy, enabling synchronized rollouts where predicted scenes and planned actions are updated simultaneously. Training optimizes two complementary objectives: generating action-conditioned multi-step visual predictions and deriving trajectories conditioned on those predicted visuals. This bidirectional constraint makes visual predictions executable and keeps decisions grounded in physically consistent, task-relevant futures, mitigating cumulative errors common in decoupled "envision-then-plan" pipelines. Experiments across diverse embodied navigation benchmarks show improved trajectory accuracy and higher success rates. Ablations confirm the necessity of tight vision-action coupling and unified training, with either branch removal degrading both prediction quality and policy reliability. In real-world testing, AstraNav-World demonstrated exceptional zero-shot capabilities, adapting to previously unseen scenarios without any real-world fine-tuning. These results suggest that AstraNav-World captures transferable spatial understanding and planning-relevant navigation dynamics, rather than merely overfitting to simulation-specific data distribution. Overall, by unifying foresight vision and control within a single generative model, we move closer to reliable, interpretable, and general-purpose embodied agents that operate robustly in open-ended real-world settings.

Generating deep research reports requires large-scale information acquisition and the synthesis of insight-driven analysis, posing a significant challenge for current language models. Most existing approaches follow a plan-then-write paradigm, whose performance heavily depends on the quality of the initial outline. However, constructing a comprehensive outline itself demands strong reasoning ability, causing current deep research systems to rely almost exclusively on closed-source or online large models. This reliance raises practical barriers to deployment and introduces safety and privacy concerns for user-authored data. In this work, we present AgentCPM-Report, a lightweight yet high-performing local solution composed of a framework that mirrors the human writing process and an 8B-parameter deep research agent. Our framework uses a Writing As Reasoning Policy (WARP), which enables models to dynamically revise outlines during report generation. Under this policy, the agent alternates between Evidence-Based Drafting and Reasoning-Driven Deepening, jointly supporting information acquisition, knowledge refinement, and iterative outline evolution. To effectively equip small models with this capability, we introduce a Multi-Stage Agentic Training strategy, consisting of cold-start, atomic skill RL, and holistic pipeline RL. Experiments on DeepResearch Bench, DeepConsult, and DeepResearch Gym demonstrate that AgentCPM-Report outperforms leading closed-source systems, with substantial gains in Insight.

Robotic manipulation policies are commonly initialized through imitation learning, but their performance is limited by the scarcity and narrow coverage of expert data. Reinforcement learning can refine polices to alleviate this limitation, yet real-robot training is costly and unsafe, while training in simulators suffers from the sim-to-real gap. Recent advances in generative models have demonstrated remarkable capabilities in real-world simulation, with diffusion models in particular excelling at generation. This raises the question of how diffusion model-based world models can be combined to enhance pre-trained policies in robotic manipulation. In this work, we propose World4RL, a framework that employs diffusion-based world models as high-fidelity simulators to refine pre-trained policies entirely in imagined environments for robotic manipulation. Unlike prior works that primarily employ world models for planning, our framework enables direct end-to-end policy optimization. World4RL is designed around two principles: pre-training a diffusion world model that captures diverse dynamics on multi-task datasets and refining policies entirely within a frozen world model to avoid online real-world interactions. We further design a two-hot action encoding scheme tailored for robotic manipulation and adopt diffusion backbones to improve modeling fidelity. Extensive simulation and real-world experiments demonstrate that World4RL provides high-fidelity environment modeling and enables consistent policy refinement, yielding significantly higher success rates compared to imitation learning and other baselines. More visualization results are available at https://world4rl.github.io/.

Reinforcement learning is a framework for learning to act sequentially in an unknown environment. We propose a natural approach for modeling policy structure in policy gradients. The key idea is to optimize for a subset of future rewards: smaller subsets represent simpler policies, which can be learned more reliably because their empirical gradient estimates are more accurate. Our approach allows for modeling and comparison of different policy classes, including full planning, greedy, K-step lookahead, and segment policies. We evaluate the policies empirically on multiple persona-alignment conversational problems. Different policies excel in different problems, reflecting their different characteristics and highlighting the importance of our studied policy class.

Future Frame Synthesis (FFS), the task of generating subsequent video frames from context, represents a core challenge in machine intelligence and a cornerstone for developing predictive world models. This survey provides a comprehensive analysis of the FFS landscape, charting its critical evolution from deterministic algorithms focused on pixel-level accuracy to modern generative paradigms that prioritize semantic coherence and dynamic plausibility. We introduce a novel taxonomy organized by algorithmic stochasticity, which not only categorizes existing methods but also reveals the fundamental drivers--advances in architectures, datasets, and computational scale--behind this paradigm shift. Critically, our analysis identifies a bifurcation in the field's trajectory: one path toward efficient, real-time prediction, and another toward large-scale, generative world simulation. By pinpointing key challenges and proposing concrete research questions for both frontiers, this survey serves as an essential guide for researchers aiming to advance the frontiers of visual dynamic modeling.

We propose a new method for optimistic planning in infinite-horizon discounted Markov decision processes based on the idea of adding regularization to the updates of an otherwise standard approximate value iteration procedure. This technique allows us to avoid contraction and monotonicity arguments typically required by existing analyses of approximate dynamic programming methods, and in particular to use approximate transition functions estimated via least-squares procedures in MDPs with linear function approximation. We use our method to recover known guarantees in tabular MDPs and to provide a computationally efficient algorithm for learning near-optimal policies in discounted linear mixture MDPs from a single stream of experience, and show it achieves near-optimal statistical guarantees.

Temporal-difference (TD) methods learn state and action values efficiently by bootstrapping from their own future value predictions, but such a self-bootstrapping mechanism is prone to bootstrapping bias, where the errors in the value targets accumulate across steps and result in biased value estimates. Recent work has proposed to use chunked critics, which estimate the value of short action sequences ("chunks") rather than individual actions, speeding up value backup. However, extracting policies from chunked critics is challenging: policies must output the entire action chunk open-loop, which can be sub-optimal for environments that require policy reactivity and also challenging to model especially when the chunk length grows. Our key insight is to decouple the chunk length of the critic from that of the policy, allowing the policy to operate over shorter action chunks. We propose a novel algorithm that achieves this by optimizing the policy against a distilled critic for partial action chunks, constructed by optimistically backing up from the original chunked critic to approximate the maximum value achievable when a partial action chunk is extended to a complete one. This design retains the benefits of multi-step value propagation while sidestepping both the open-loop sub-optimality and the difficulty of learning action chunking policies for long action chunks. We evaluate our method on challenging, long-horizon offline goal-conditioned tasks and show that it reliably outperforms prior methods. Code: github.com/ColinQiyangLi/dqc.

We study the problem of planning under model uncertainty in an online meta-reinforcement learning (RL) setting where an agent is presented with a sequence of related tasks with limited interactions per task. The agent can use its experience in each task and across tasks to estimate both the transition model and the distribution over tasks. We propose an algorithm to meta-learn the underlying structure across tasks, utilize it to plan in each task, and upper-bound the regret of the planning loss. Our bound suggests that the average regret over tasks decreases as the number of tasks increases and as the tasks are more similar. In the classical single-task setting, it is known that the planning horizon should depend on the estimated model's accuracy, that is, on the number of samples within task. We generalize this finding to meta-RL and study this dependence of planning horizons on the number of tasks. Based on our theoretical findings, we derive heuristics for selecting slowly increasing discount factors, and we validate its significance empirically.

While agent evaluation has shifted toward long-horizon tasks, most benchmarks still emphasize local, step-level reasoning rather than the global constrained optimization (e.g., time and financial budgets) that demands genuine planning ability. Meanwhile, existing LLM planning benchmarks underrepresent the active information gathering and fine-grained local constraints typical of real-world settings. To address this, we introduce DeepPlanning, a challenging benchmark for practical long-horizon agent planning. It features multi-day travel planning and multi-product shopping tasks that require proactive information acquisition, local constrained reasoning, and global constrained optimization. Evaluations on DeepPlanning show that even frontier agentic LLMs struggle with these problems, highlighting the importance of reliable explicit reasoning patterns and parallel tool use for achieving better effectiveness-efficiency trade-offs. Error analysis further points to promising directions for improving agentic LLMs over long planning horizons. We open-source the code and data to support future research.

Reinforcement Learning with Verifiable Rewards (RLVR) has become a central post-training paradigm for improving the reasoning capabilities of large language models. Yet existing methods share a common blind spot: they optimize policies based on instantaneous group-level or batch-level statistics without ever verifying whether the resulting update actually improved the model. This open-loop design -- updating in isolation at each step, guided only by within-group (batch) reward signals -- means optimization can drift or collapse with no mechanism to detect and correct these failures. We argue that the missing ingredient is policy improvement feedback: the ability to measure and optimize inter-iteration progress directly. To this end, we introduce Policy Improvement Reinforcement Learning (PIRL), a framework that replaces surrogate reward maximization with the explicit objective of maximizing cumulative policy improvement across iterations, and prove this temporal objective is perfectly aligned with maximizing final task performance. Building on PIRL, we propose Policy Improvement Policy Optimization (PIPO), which implements closed-loop optimization through retrospective verification. At each iteration, PIPO evaluates whether the previous update yielded genuine improvement against a sliding-window historical baseline, then actively reinforces beneficial updates and suppresses the harmful ones -- transforming an open-loop process into a self-correcting one. We provide theoretical analysis showing that PIPO performs ascent on the PIRL objective in expectation, and experiments on mathematical reasoning benchmarks demonstrate improved stability and performance over GRPO and its variants.

Linear temporal logic (LTL) offers a simplified way of specifying tasks for policy optimization that may otherwise be difficult to describe with scalar reward functions. However, the standard RL framework can be too myopic to find maximally LTL satisfying policies. This paper makes two contributions. First, we develop a new value-function based proxy, using a technique we call eventual discounting, under which one can find policies that satisfy the LTL specification with highest achievable probability. Second, we develop a new experience replay method for generating off-policy data from on-policy rollouts via counterfactual reasoning on different ways of satisfying the LTL specification. Our experiments, conducted in both discrete and continuous state-action spaces, confirm the effectiveness of our counterfactual experience replay approach.

In recent years, Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable generative abilities, but can they judge the quality of their own generations? A popular concept, referred to as self-refinement, postulates that LLMs can detect and correct the errors in their generations when asked to do so. However, recent empirical evidence points in the opposite direction, suggesting that LLMs often struggle to accurately identify errors when reasoning is involved. To address this, we propose a reasoning with refinement objective called ART: Ask, Refine, and Trust, which asks necessary questions to decide when an LLM should refine its output, and either affirm or withhold trust in its refinement by ranking the refinement and the initial prediction. On two multistep reasoning tasks of mathematical word problems (GSM8K) and question answering (StrategyQA), ART achieves a performance gain of +5 points over self-refinement baselines, while using a much smaller model as the decision maker. We also demonstrate the benefit of using smaller models to make refinement decisions as a cost-effective alternative to fine-tuning a larger model.

State-of-the-art language models can exhibit impressive reasoning refinement capabilities on math, science or coding tasks. However, recent work demonstrates that even the best models struggle to identify when and where to refine without access to external feedback. Outcome-based Reward Models (ORMs), trained to predict correctness of the final answer indicating when to refine, offer one convenient solution for deciding when to refine. Process Based Reward Models (PRMs), trained to predict correctness of intermediate steps, can then be used to indicate where to refine. But they are expensive to train, requiring extensive human annotations. In this paper, we propose Stepwise ORMs (SORMs) which are trained, only on synthetic data, to approximate the expected future reward of the optimal policy or V^{star}. More specifically, SORMs are trained to predict the correctness of the final answer when sampling the current policy many times (rather than only once as in the case of ORMs). Our experiments show that SORMs can more accurately detect incorrect reasoning steps compared to ORMs, thus improving downstream accuracy when doing refinements. We then train global refinement models, which take only the question and a draft solution as input and predict a corrected solution, and local refinement models which also take as input a critique indicating the location of the first reasoning error. We generate training data for both models synthetically by reusing data used to train the SORM. We find combining global and local refinements, using the ORM as a reranker, significantly outperforms either one individually, as well as a best of three sample baseline. With this strategy we can improve the accuracy of a LLaMA-2 13B model (already fine-tuned with RL) on GSM8K from 53\% to 65\% when greedily sampled.

Contemporary progress in large language models (LLMs) has revealed notable inferential capacities via reinforcement learning (RL) employing verifiable reward, facilitating the development of O1 and R1-like reasoning models. Directly training from base models with RL is called zero-RL. However, previous works rely upon activating LLMs' inherent capacities through fixed prompt templates. This strategy introduces substantial sampling inefficiencies for weak LLMs, as the majority of problems generate invalid outputs during accuracy-driven filtration in reasoning tasks, which causes a waste of samples. To solve this issue, we propose Cog-Rethinker, a novel hierarchical metacognitive RL framework for LLM reasoning. Our Cog-Rethinker mainly focuses on the rollout procedure in RL training. After the direct rollout, our Cog-Rethinker improves sample utilization in a hierarchical metacognitive two-stage framework. By leveraging human cognition during solving problems, firstly, it prompts policy to decompose zero-accuracy problems into subproblems to produce final reasoning results. Secondly, with zero-accuracy problems in previous rollout stage, it further prompts policy to refine these answers by referencing previous wrong solutions. Moreover, to enable cold-start of the two new reasoning patterns and maintain train-test consistency across prompt templates, our Cog-Rethinker applies supervised fine-tuning on the policy using correct samples of the two stages with direct rollout template. Experimental results demonstrate Cog-Rethinker's superior performance on various mathematical reasoning benchmarks, we also analyzed its improved sample efficiency that accelerates convergence compared to baseline methods.

In Reinforcement Learning (RL), regularization has emerged as a popular tool both in theory and practice, typically based either on an entropy bonus or a Kullback-Leibler divergence that constrains successive policies. In practice, these approaches have been shown to improve exploration, robustness and stability, giving rise to popular Deep RL algorithms such as SAC and TRPO. Policy Mirror Descent (PMD) is a theoretical framework that solves this general regularized policy optimization problem, however the closed-form solution involves the sum of all past Q-functions, which is intractable in practice. We propose and analyze PMD-like algorithms that only keep the last M Q-functions in memory, and show that for finite and large enough M, a convergent algorithm can be derived, introducing no error in the policy update, unlike prior deep RL PMD implementations. StaQ, the resulting algorithm, enjoys strong theoretical guarantees and is competitive with deep RL baselines, while exhibiting less performance oscillation, paving the way for fully stable deep RL algorithms and providing a testbed for experimentation with Policy Mirror Descent.

Agentic workflows, where multiple AI agents collaborate to accomplish complex tasks like reasoning or planning, are becoming increasingly prevalent. However, these workflows often suffer from error propagation and sub-optimal performance, largely due to poorly designed prompts that fail to effectively guide individual agents. This is a critical problem because it limits the reliability and scalability of these powerful systems. We introduce ProRefine, an innovative inference-time prompt optimization method that leverages textual feedback from large language models (LLMs) to address this challenge. ProRefine dynamically refines prompts for multi-step reasoning tasks without additional training or ground truth labels. Evaluated on five benchmark mathematical reasoning datasets, ProRefine significantly surpasses zero-shot Chain-of-Thought baselines by 3 to 37 percentage points. This approach not only boosts accuracy but also allows smaller models to match the performance of larger ones, highlighting its potential for efficient and scalable AI deployment, and democratizing access to high-performing AI.

Reinforcement learning (RL) is the dominant paradigm for post-training large language models. However, in the online, on-policy setting, rollout generation dominates the computational cost of training. Group-based policy optimization methods compute advantages from multiple rollouts per prompt, yet they indiscriminately allocate budget to prompts with collapsed reward distributions, wasting expensive rollouts on negligible learning signals. We demonstrate that group-based updates are most effective in regimes of high reward variance. Since the policy evolves throughout training, prompt informativeness must be estimated online rather than precomputed, but exhaustively evaluating every prompt is computationally prohibitive. We introduce Pilot-Commit, a budget-aware rollout allocation framework for group-based RL post-training. Pilot-Commit decouples prompt evaluation from exploitation: a pilot stage estimates per-prompt informativeness using a fraction of the budget, and the remaining rollouts are allocated to high-leverage prompts while low-signal prompts are skipped. Across multiple math reasoning benchmarks and model scales from 1.5B to 14B parameters, Pilot-Commit matches baseline accuracy with significantly lower sampling costs, reaching target accuracy up to 1.9times faster than GRPO and 4.0times faster than DAPO in cumulative rollouts.

In this work, we introduce a novel approach that equips LLM agents with introspection, enhancing consistency and adaptability in solving complex tasks. Our approach prompts LLM agents to decompose a given task into manageable subtasks (i.e., to make a plan), and to continuously introspect upon the suitability and results of their actions. We implement a three-fold introspective intervention: 1) anticipatory reflection on potential failures and alternative remedy before action execution, 2) post-action alignment with subtask objectives and backtracking with remedy to ensure utmost effort in plan execution, and 3) comprehensive review upon plan completion for future strategy refinement. By deploying and experimenting with this methodology - a zero-shot approach - within WebArena for practical tasks in web environments, our agent demonstrates superior performance over existing zero-shot methods. The experimental results suggest that our introspection-driven approach not only enhances the agent's ability to navigate unanticipated challenges through a robust mechanism of plan execution, but also improves efficiency by reducing the number of trials and plan revisions needed to achieve a task.